Study says Netflix could lose half a million customers due to this one decision

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Netflix: Will phase out grandfathering over 2016

As of last month, the great Netflix price bump officially began, with the first wave of about 27M subscribers being subject to a $2 per month price increase.

The two-stream HD plan subscribers that haven't yet been affected will be this fall.

The price increase will change existing subscribers' monthly fees from $7.99 to $9.99, with the option to downgrade to a single-stream SD plan for the same $7.99 price.

Additionally, due to a grandfathering system, those who signed up for the HD plan after May 2014 (when the price was increased from $7.99 to $8.99) will only see a $1 increase to even out their subscription fee with the others.

Though $1 or $2 may seem small, to many users in the grand scheme of things, it isn't.

SEE ALSO: Netflix just changed its logo

Perhaps it's a matter of principle or an actual issue with affordability, but analysts at Nomura Securities are estimating that the seemingly minor jack up in subscriptions fees is going to cost the streaming company an alarming number of subscribers.

Based on an estimated 2 percent churn rate for Netflix members who saw a $2 monthly increase and a 1 percent churn rate for customers whose subscriptions will increase by $1 monthly, analysts are predicting that upwards of 480K customers will cancel their Netflix subscriptions.

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings explained the process:

"We will phase out this grandfathering gradually over the remainder of 2016, with our longest­-tenured members getting the longest benefit. We are rolling this out slowly over the year, rather than mostly in May, so we can learn as we go."

However, though the company may be losing valuable subscribers, it looks like their revenue isn't slated to suffer.

Even if this estimated number of subscribers actually do cancel, Netflix would still be looking at $520M in annual revenue.

You win some, you lose some.

Or in Netflix's case, you lose some, you still make millions.

Now, take a look at Netflix throughout its history:

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History of Netflix
An exterior view of Netflix headquarters is shown in Los Gatos, Calif., Friday, July 21, 2006. Netflix earnings report will be released after the bell. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Netflix Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings holds up two of their most popular DVD rentals "The Perfect Storm" and "Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles" at their distribution plant in San Jose, Calif., Monday, Sept. 10, 2001. Online DVD rental company Netflix is emerging as one of the Internet's rising stars that has attracted a cast of 300,000 subscribers who pay a $19.95 monthly fee to get up to three DVD rentals mailed to them. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
400303 03: Ready-to-be-shipped DVDs roll down an assembly line January 29, 2002 in San Jose, CA. The online DVD rental site Netflix.com has 500,000 subscribers who can rent, receive and return unlimited discs per month by mail. (Photo By Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
400303 01: Netflix.com Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings holds a ready-to-be-shipped DVD January 29, 2002 in San Jose, CA. The online DVD rental site has 500,000 subscribers who can rent, receive and return unlimited discs per month by mail. (Photo By Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
400303 05: Packages of DVDs await shipment at the Netflix.com headquarters January 29, 2002 in San Jose, CA. The online DVD rental site has 500,000 subscribers who can rent, receive and return unlimited discs per month by mail. (Photo By Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
**FILE** Netflix customer Carleen Ho holds up DVD movies, "Talladega Nights" and "Pirates of the Caribbean' that she rented from Netflix, at her home in Palo Alto, Calif., in this Jan. 24, 2007 file photo. Netflix is expected to release quarterly earnings on Monday, July 23, 2007. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file)
Close up of the Netflix's new set top box at Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, Calif., Friday, May 16, 2008. Netflix Inc. on Tuesday will introduce its first solution for subscribers who want entertainment delivered directly to their television sets with just a few clicks on a remote control. The breakthrough comes in the form of 5-inch-by-5-inch device tailored for a year-old service that uses high-speed Interneet connections to stream more than 10,000 movies and TV shows from Netflix's library. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings shows off their new set top box at Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, Calif., Friday, May 16, 2008. Netflix Inc. on Tuesday will introduce its first solution for subscribers who want entertainment delivered directly to their television sets with just a few clicks on a remote control. The breakthrough comes in the form of 5-inch-by-5-inch device tailored for a year-old service that uses high-speed Interneet connections to stream more than 10,000 movies and TV shows from Netflix's library. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Actress Teri Hatcher, second from left, and actor James Denton, right, perform together with the celebrity cover band "Band From TV" at the "Netflix Live! on Location" concert and screening series at Griffith Park in Los Angeles on Saturday, Aug. 9, 2008. (AP Photo/Dan Steinberg)
FILE - In this July 20, 2010 file photo, a Netflix subscriber turns on Netflix in Palo Alto, Calif. Netflix's streaming-video audience of more than 20 million subscribers has led many to label it a kind of digital TV network, and one that may grow into an HBO rival _ if it's not already. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file)
Actor Steven Van Zandt and wife Maureen Van Zandt attend the premiere of a Netflix original series "Lilyhammer" at the Crosby Street Hotel on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2012 in New York. (AP Photo/Evan Agostini)
Netflix chief content officer Ted Sarandos and wife Nicole Avant attend the TIME 100 Gala celebrating the "100 Most Influential People in the World" at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Tuesday April 23, 2013 in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)
Taylor Schilling, left, Cindy Holland and Piper Kerman attend the premiere of the Netflix original series "Orange is the New Black" on Tuesday, June 25, 2013 in New York. (Photo by Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)
A general view of atmosphere seen at the Netflix Emmy Party, on Sunday, Sep, 22, 2013 in Los Angeles. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Ted Sarandos, Chief Content Officer, Robin Wright, Kevin Spacey and Cindy Holland, Netflix VP of original content seen at Netflix 'House of Cards' Los Angeles Season 2 Special Screening, on Thursday, Feb, 13, 2014 in Los Angeles. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Ricky Gervais and Conan O'Brien seen at Netflix 'Derek' Season 2 Academy screening at the Leonard H. Goldenson Theatre on Tuesday, May 28, 2014, in North Hollywood, CA. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
The cast at a Special Fan Screening of Netflix's "Hemlock Grove" held at The Arclight Theater on Thursday, July 10, 2014, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Alexandra Wyman/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Laverne Cox at Netflix's FYC "Orange is the New Black" Emmy Panel on Monday, August 4, 2014, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Alexandra Wyman/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Ted Sarandos, Chief Content Officer of Netflix seen at the Netflix Celebration of 2014 TIFF on Sunday, Sep. 7, 2014, in Toronto. (Photo by Arthur Mola/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Actress Jacinda Barrett attends the Netflix original series premiere of "Bloodline" at the SVA Theatre on Tuesday, March 3, 2015, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)
IMAGE DISTRIBUTED FOR LG ELECTRONICS - Matt Lloyd, director of photography for Marvel’s “Daredevil," explains how OLED technology helps deliver his creative vision to audiences at LG and Netflix’s Dare to See OLED event, Wednesday, April 8, 2015 in New York. (Photo by Jason DeCrow/Invision for LG Electronics/AP Images)
Kevin Spacey seen at Netflix 'House of Cards' Academy Screening at AMPAS on Monday, April 27, 2015, in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Tina Desai seen at the world premiere of the Netflix original series "Sense8" on Wednesday, May 27, 2015, in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
Jane Krakowski, from left, Tina Fey, Ellie Kemper and Robert Carlock arrive at Netflix's "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" Q&A Screening at Pacific Design Center on Sunday, June 7, 2015, in West Hollywood, Calif. (Photo by Rich Fury/Invision/AP)
attends Netflix's "Orange is the New Black" ORANGECON Celebration at Skylight Clarkson SQ on Thursday, June 11, 2015, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP)
This June 24, 2015 photo shows the Netflix Apple TV app icon, in South Orange, N.J. (AP Photo/Dan Goodman)
Director/Producer, Hot Girls Wanted- Jill Bauer, Director, What Happened, Miss Simone? - Liz Garbus, Director, Virunga - Orlando von Einsiedel, Director, Chef’s Table - David Gelb and Subject and Executive Producer, Tig - Tig Notaro seen at Netflix 2015 Summer TCA at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on Tuesday, July 28, 2015, in Beverly Hills, CA. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Invision for Netflix/AP Images)
FILE - In this March 13, 2007 file photo, Steven Avery listens to testimony in the courtroom at the Calumet County Courthouse in Chilton, Wis. The Netflix documentary series âMaking a Murdererâ tells the story of a Wisconsin man wrongly convicted of sexual assault only to be accused, along with his nephew, of killing a photographer two years after being released. An online petition has collected hundreds of thousands of digital signatures seeking a pardon for the pair of convicted killers-turned-social media sensations based on a Netflix documentary series that cast doubt on the legal process. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings gives a keynote address, January 6, 2016 at the CES 2016 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nevada. AFP PHOTO / ROBYN BECK / AFP / ROBYN BECK (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
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