PredictIt: Clinton more likely to win US presidency than Trump

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How Donald Trump and the Clintons went from friends to foes

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has a higher probability than her likely Republican rival Donald Trump of becoming the next U.S. president, but the gap between the pair narrowed this week, according to the online political stock market PredictIt.

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Clinton's probability on Friday was 61 percent, down from 65 percent seven days ago, according to the site, which allows users to wager small amounts of money on "yes" or "no" predictions of future events. The probability that Trump will win the Nov. 8 election was 40 percent, up from 34 percent.

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2016 Election: Scenes from New York primary (Clinton, Trump)
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PredictIt: Clinton more likely to win US presidency than Trump
MANHATTAN, NY - Winning the New York primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to a packed room of supporters during the victory party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, NY - On New York state primary night, supporters of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cheer watching the primary results during the Hillary Victory Party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, NY - Winning the New York primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to a packed room of supporters during the victory party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, NY - Winning the New York primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to a packed room of supporters during the victory party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, NY - Winning the New York primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to a packed room of supporters during the victory party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, NY - On New York state primary night, supporters of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton watch the primary results and enjoy the party during the Hillary Victory Party at the Sheraton Hotel in midtown Manhattan, New York on Tuesday April 19 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Dupporters of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton snap cell phone pictures of her as she enters a victory party after winning the New York state primary election, Tuesday, April 19, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton celebrate at her New York primary campaign headquarters, Tuesday, April 19, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton reacts as she arrives onstage at her New York presidential primary night rally in the Manhattan borough of New York City, U.S., April 19, 2016. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)
Members of the media await the arrival of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to a New York primary night event Tuesday, April 19, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks following victory in the New York state primary on April 19, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump scored a crucial victory in the Republican primary in his home state of New York on April 19, advancing his bid to clinch the party's presidential nomination, US networks projected. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures after speaking in New York on April 19, 2016. Donald Trump scored a crucial victory in the Republican primary in his home state of New York on April 19, advancing his bid to clinch the party's presidential nomination, US networks projected. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 19: Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump speakS at a campaign press conference moments after winning the republican presidential primary at Trump Tower in New York, NY on Tuesday April 19, 2016. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives a thumbs up following victory in the New York state primary on April 19, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump scored a crucial victory in the Republican primary in his home state of New York on April 19, advancing his bid to clinch the party's presidential nomination, US networks projected. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's granddaughter Arabella (L), daughter Ivanka (C) and wife Melania (R) listen to him speak at his New York presidential primary night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., April 19, 2016. (REUTERS/Carlo Allegri)
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Trump's sweeping victory in this week's Indiana primary prompted his remaining Republicans rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich to drop out of the race, cementing the businessman's status as the party's presumptive nominee.

He is now testing out themes to use against Clinton to persuade disgruntled Republicans to get behind his campaign. On Friday, he criticized her use of a private email server while she was U.S. secretary of state.

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PredictIt is jointly run by Washington political consultancy Aristotle and Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand. All of its users are registered U.S. voters.

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Important people who support Hillary Clinton (Politicians, famous figures, other celebs)
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PredictIt: Clinton more likely to win US presidency than Trump

Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., smiles during an event with Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015. Buffet said at the rally that he was supporting Clinton's bid for president because they share a commitment to help the less affluent. (Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Governor Jerry Brown, seen here with then-candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, notoriously did not like the Clintons for years, but announced a week before the California primary that he would back Hillary Clinton. (Photo by Cynthia Johnson/Getty)
Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, seen here at the 2016 Vanity Fair Oscar Party, hasn't formally endorsed Hillary Clinton but he has donated $2700 to her campaign and backed her in 2008. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)
Walter Mondale was the first former Democratic vice president to endorse Clinton (REUTERS/Craig Lassig)
Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., has been an early Clinton backer, seen here at a 'Super Tuesday' watch party her campaign in Atlanta, Ga., March 1, 2016. He is famous for his work fighting for civil rights alongside Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
LEBANON, NH - JANUARY 09: Former U.S. Women's National Soccer Team captain Abby Wambach smiles while she is introduced to a crowd at a Hillary Clinton campaign office on January 9, 2016 in Lebanon, New Hampshire. Wambach highlighted Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's commitment to standing up for women and girls. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
Singer Demi Lovato, seen here onstage at WE Day California 2016, is a Clinton supporter. (Photo by Mike Windle/Getty Images for WE Day )
Actress and screenwriter Lena Dunham campaigns for U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at Eight Seven Central screen printers in Des Moines, Iowa, January 9, 2016. REUTERS/Brian C. Frank
Singer Katy Perry, center, holds a sign in support of Hillary Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, as Clinton speaks at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015. With Vice President Joe Biden officially out of the presidential race, the nation's first nominating contest between front-runner Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining steam, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, seen here working with Clinton when they were Senate colleagues, was an early supporter of the former secretary of state. (REUTERS/William Philpott WP/SV)
Actress Kerry Washington, seen here at a 30th anniversary presentation at the 2015 Film Independent Spirit Awards, is a Clinton supporter. (Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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As with polls, predictions markets like PredictIt do not always accurately forecast outcome. Ninety days ago, its users gave Trump a 20 percent probability of winning the presidency, illustrating how the celebrity businessman's momentum was underestimated.

Clinton is in a fight with U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination and holds a clear lead in delegates.

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