Damaging storms possible in Midwest Monday; severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, possible for Tuesday-Wednesday

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Spotting A Tornado On Radar

By Jon Erdman and Chris Dolce, the Weather Channel

A week of dangerous severe storms capable of spawning tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds gusts is taking aim on part of the Plains, Midwest and South.

The first bout of potentially damaging storms brought large hail and a few reports of tornadoes to the Plains states Sunday. The chance for a few severe thunderstorms will move into the southern Great Lakes region on Monday.

(MORE: Tornadoes, Hail Impact Plains Sunday)

Photos of tornados that struck Oklahoma last month:

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Damaging storms possible in Midwest Monday; severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, possible for Tuesday-Wednesday
A tornado touches down in Tulsa, Okla., on Wednesday, March 30, 2016. The National Weather Service is confirming multiple tornado touchdowns in the Tulsa area. (AP Photo/Larry Papke)
A tornado touches down in Tulsa, Okla., on Wednesday, March 30, 2016. The National Weather Service is confirming multiple tornado touchdowns in the Tulsa area. The City of Tulsa said in a statement that several roads were closed and police and fire crews were canvassing the city. The Streets and Water Departments are assisting with road barricades and debris removal. At least nine injuries were reported. (AP Photo/Larry Papke)
Jonesboro streets https://t.co/vCwn41m3mV
Severe weather threat continues over portions of the central and southern U.S through Thursday. https://t.co/zUJjzDwnbi
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Then, a potential outbreak of severe storms, including the possibility of strong, long-track tornadoes, is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional rounds of severe storms will follow for late in the week and potentially into next weekend. This could include yet another widespread outbreak.

(MORE: April's Tornado Pace Slow So Far)

Below we are the forecast details through the week ahead.

Why We're Concerned: The Setup

In general, spring severe outbreaks are triggered when a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, surges east into the Plains states.

That precise pattern looks to be shaping up this week, particularly by Tuesday.

In fact, there appear to be three distinct upper-level disturbances embedded in that general trough that each will help ignite rounds of severe thunderstorms through next weekend.

Ahead of each upper disturbance, progressively richer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will push northward, adding to instability from the pockets of cold, dry air aloft. This combination of ingredients will fuel the development of severe thunderstorms.

(MORE: Why April is a Dangerous Month)

Severe Weather Forecast

In any severe weather forecast several days out, there are key uncertainties, such as the amount of sunshine increasing instability the day of the event, that can affect the overall coverage and severity of severe weather.

(INTERACTIVE: Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)

Therefore, check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather as our forecasts come into focus in the days ahead.

For now, here's an outlook of potentially the most active severe weather periods into next weekend.

Into Early Monday

Scattered severe t-storms from southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota into parts of central and northern Kansas.
Overall outbreak potential: Not expected
Threats: Large hail is the primary threat but damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible.
Cities: Omaha, Nebraska | Topeka, Kansas

Monday

Isolated severe t-storms from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwestern Michigan, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio.
Overall outbreak potential: Not expected
Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible.
Cities: Chicago | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | South Bend, Indiana

Tuesday

Outbreak of severe t-storms in parts of the central and southern Plains, particularly in southern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, north-central and central Texas. The threat may spread into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas, as well, into the evening.
Overall outbreak potential: Moderate to high
Threats: Tornadoes (possibly strong/long-track), very large hail, damaging winds
Cities: Dallas-Fort Worth | Hastings, Nebraska | Oklahoma City | Tulsa, Oklahoma | Wichita, Kansas

Wednesday

Severe t-storms could again be rather numerous from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, Ozarks and northeast Texas.
Overall outbreak potential: Moderate
Threats: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds
Cities: Little Rock | Paducah, Kentucky | St. Louis

Late week

Once again, more widespread severe t-storms are possible in the central and southern Plains, possibly extending east into parts of the Mississippi Valley.
Severe t-storms are possible each day in these areas at times Thursday into next weekend (Apr. 30 - May 1).
Overall outbreak potential: Too soon to tell, but could be at least moderate on one or more days.

(MAPS: 7-Day National Forecast)

The uncertainty about late in the week centers primarily around the timing of when the entire western upper-level trough pushes east out into the Plains states, which would dictate when the most widespread severe thunderstorm threat (possible outbreak) would occur.

Now is a good time to refresh your memory on severe weather preparedness.

(MORE: 7 Things You Should Never Forget When Tornadoes Threaten | Tornado Safety Page)

Do you know where to go in your home, condo, apartment, office or school when a tornado warning is issued? What if you're caught out in the open?

The time to have a tornado safety plan is now, before a tornado strikes.

Sunday's Storm Reports

Sunday evening, a tornado was reported near Holyrood, Kansas and near Glendale, Kansas, with numerous reports of funnel clouds near Ellsworth. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was also observed near New Cambria, Kansas. Two tornadoes were also spotted in southern Nebraska, near Superior and Deshler Sunday evening. Damage to a trailer home has also been reported in Munden, Kansas, possibly due to a tornado and two people were injured during the storm.

Damage from a possible tornado was also reported in League City, Texas Sunday evening, including roof and fence damage.

Farther north, there were multiple reports of a brief tornado near Delavan, Minnesota Sunday night. A tornado was also reported near Waseca, Minnesota.

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