Clinton and Trump poised for New York victories, but Sanders is rising

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Poll: Clinton, Trump Strong in New York

With less than 24 hours until polls open across the Empire State, Hillary Clinton is making the final arrangements for the Sanders campaign's funeral, while Donald Trump dreams of a delegate sweep and Bernie backers pray for another Michigan miracle.

The most recent polls show each party's front-runner in a commanding position. A CBS News/YouGov poll puts Trump over Ohio governor John Kasich by 33 points, while an Emerson University poll puts him up by 34; in both surveys, the Donald commands over 50 percent. FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of a Trump victory tomorrow at greater than 99 percent. But that doesn't mean the mogul won't be wringing his tiny hands while waiting to hear the returns: The New York GOP's complex delegate allocation rules may allow the Donald's rivals to diminish the significance of his win.

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Clinton and Trump poised for New York victories, but Sanders is rising
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 13: Attendees await the start of a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (not pictured) at Washington Square Park on April 13, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by D Dipasupil/WireImage)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 13: Attendees await the start of a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (not pictured) at Washington Square Park on April 13, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by D Dipasupil/WireImage)
Attendees hold signs in support of Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, not pictured, at a campaign event in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 13, 2016. Sanders stepped up his feud with General Electric Co., denouncing the manufacturer as 'greedy' and accusing Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt of not being truthful in responding to the attacks. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Natalia Plaza (L) and Suzanne Tufan, with their faces painted, wait for a campaign rally with U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders in Washington Square Park in the Greenwich Village neighborhood of New York, New York April 13, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
An attendee wears a t-shirt in support of Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, not pictured, at a campaign event in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 13, 2016. Sanders stepped up his feud with General Electric Co., denouncing the manufacturer as 'greedy' and accusing Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt of not being truthful in responding to the attacks. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
An attendee holds a sign in support of Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, not pictured, at a campaign event in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 13, 2016. Sanders stepped up his feud with General Electric Co., denouncing the manufacturer as 'greedy' and accusing Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt of not being truthful in responding to the attacks. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 13: Rosario Dawson speaks onstage at a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (not pictured) at Washington Square Park on April 13, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by D Dipasupil/WireImage)
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 13: Film director Spike Lee attends the Bernie Sanders rally in Washington Square Park on April 13, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Mireya Acierto/FilmMagic)
MANHATTAN, NY - APRIL 13: U.S. Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (I-VT) campaigns at Washington Square Park in Manhattan, NY, on April 13, 2016. (Photo by Yana Paskova/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders addresses supporters at his campaign rally in Washington Square Park in the Greenwich Village neighborhood of New York City, April 13, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders addresses supporters at his campaign rally in Washington Square Park in the Greenwich Village neighborhood of New York City, April 13, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
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Here's the trouble for Trump: Each of New York's 27 congressional districts has three delegates to award. If the Donald clears 50 percent in a district, he lays claim to all three -- but if he comes in anywhere below that threshold, even at 49 percent, he collects two delegates, and the runner-up takes one. According to a Politico poll released last week, Trump runs up big margins in Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island, but he's stuck around 40 percent in many districts upstate. And then there are districts like Charlie Rangel's up in Harlem, where the race will be decided by, approximately, two Republican families. The Politico poll suggests that Cruz and Kasich could scoop up as many as 24 of the state's 95 delegates. With Trump's path to a pre-convention majority already claustrophobically narrow, the front-runner has to hope that late-deciders upstate give him a few more district-level landslides.

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Clinton and Trump poised for New York victories, but Sanders is rising
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reads the lyrics of Al Wilson's song "The Snake" during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reads the lyrics of Al Wilson's song "The Snake" during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listen during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on stage during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a sign during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on stage during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes a photo during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points to supporters after a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A man reacts as U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump speaks on stage during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a sign during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Ivanka Trump, daughter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, introduces her father at a campaign rally in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wait for campaign event to begin at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands with a walker in front of portable toilets before a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A tattoo is seen on an attendee during a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Security guards escort a protester from a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
An attendee wears an American flag at a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Security guards escort a protester from the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: A supporter holds a up a book by Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump prior to a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, center right, waves to attendees during a campaign event in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters pose for a picture prior to a campaign rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters gather for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump prior to a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters cheer during a rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: A Trump supporter holds up a 'White Lives Matter' sign during a rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
Supporters await the arrival of US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally in Bethpage Long Island, New York on April 6, 2016. Trump looks to bounce back from his unsettling presidential primary los in Wisconsin, training his sights in the next White House contests on friendlier ground -- his home state of New York. / AFP / KENA BETANCUR (Photo credit should read KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump interacts with supporters following a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses a rally in Bethpage, Long Island, New York on April 6, 2016. Trump looks to bounce back from his unsettling presidential primary los in Wisconsin, training his sights in the next White House contests on friendlier ground -- his home state of New York. / AFP / KENA BETANCUR (Photo credit should read KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images)
Donald Trump supporters yell toward people protesting Trump near the site of a campaign appearance by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Bethpage, New York, Wednesday, April 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Bethpage, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a sign handed to him by a supporter after speaking at a campaign rally, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Bethpage, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
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On the Democratic side, polls from over the weekend show the race tightening, but it will likely be too little, too late for the political revolution. A CBS News/YouGov poll from over the weekend puts Sanders within ten, matching his best showing from a top-tier firm in the state. An Emerson University poll released Monday shows him trailing by 15 -- still up 3 points from last week and 33 points from last month, when Emerson gave Clinton a 48-point lead over the Vermont senator. Nonetheless, a RealClearPolitics average of all polls puts Clinton up by nearly 13, and FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of a Clinton victory in the Empire State at 99 percent.

If you're a Sandernista looking to keep your spirits up, there are a couple of things you can tell yourself: One, a Gravis poll from over the weekend shows Sanders within six points (though it was taken before Thursday's debate, and Gravis doesn't have the best reputation). Two, the night before Bernie won Michigan, RCP's average had Clinton up by more than 20 points, and Nate Silver's number crunchers gave her a 99 percent chance of victory. And, as usual, there's no shortage of grassroots energy on the democratic socialist's side. Over the weekend, nearly 30,000 people came to hear the senator speak in Prospect Park.

Still, Sanders's historic upset in Michigan was made possible by the state's open-primary system, which allowed impulsive younger voters to flock to the polls in large numbers. By contrast, New York has one of the most restrictive primaries in the country. If you didn't register with your party last October, you won't be able to cast a ballot this Tuesday -- a fact Trump's children know all too well. Plus, to keep from falling further off-pace in the delegate race, Sanders would have to win New York by multiple percentage points -- in Michigan he barely eked by Clinton.

Still, even a single-digit loss in a state that Clinton served for eight years as senator -- one where only registered Democrats are allowed to vote --would further strengthen the Vermont senator's standing within his (newly adopted) party.

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