Nate Silver: Donald Trump's chances of locking up the nomination appear to be dwindling

Before you go, we thought you'd like these...

Nate Silver: Trump Is Toast In General Election

Donald Trump's path to clinching the Republican nomination ahead of the party's July convention is looking increasingly improbable, according to FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver.

SEE MORE: COMPLETE 2016 ELECTION COVERAGE FROM AOL.com

Silver's latest delegate projection for Trump showed him finishing at 1,155 delegates -- 82 short of the 1,237 needed to secure the GOP bid heading into the convention. That number came from Silver's "deterministic" model -- which looked at the most likely outcome for Trump in each state.

RELATED: Recent Donald Trump event in NY

42 PHOTOS
Donald Trump event in New York
See Gallery
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's chances of locking up the nomination appear to be dwindling
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reads the lyrics of Al Wilson's song "The Snake" during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reads the lyrics of Al Wilson's song "The Snake" during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listen during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on stage during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a sign during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks on stage during campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes a photo during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points to supporters after a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A man reacts as U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump speaks on stage during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016 REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump cheer during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a sign during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points during a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Ivanka Trump, daughter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, introduces her father at a campaign rally in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Supporters of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wait for campaign event to begin at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A supporter of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands with a walker in front of portable toilets before a campaign event at Grumman Studios in Bethpage, New York April 6, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A tattoo is seen on an attendee during a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Security guards escort a protester from a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
An attendee wears an American flag at a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Security guards escort a protester from the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Attendees wait for the start of a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, not pictured, in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: A supporter holds a up a book by Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump prior to a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, center right, waves to attendees during a campaign event in Bethpage, New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 6, 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Trump in Wisconsin's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, embarrassing the front-runner, extending an increasingly bitter nomination fight and boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July. Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg via Getty Images
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters pose for a picture prior to a campaign rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters gather for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump prior to a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Supporters cheer during a rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: A Trump supporter holds up a 'White Lives Matter' sign during a rally for Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
Supporters await the arrival of US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally in Bethpage Long Island, New York on April 6, 2016. Trump looks to bounce back from his unsettling presidential primary los in Wisconsin, training his sights in the next White House contests on friendlier ground -- his home state of New York. / AFP / KENA BETANCUR (Photo credit should read KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump interacts with supporters following a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
BETHPAGE, NEW YORK - APRIL 06: Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 6, 2016 in Bethpage, New York. The rally comes ahead of the April 15 New York primary. (Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses a rally in Bethpage, Long Island, New York on April 6, 2016. Trump looks to bounce back from his unsettling presidential primary los in Wisconsin, training his sights in the next White House contests on friendlier ground -- his home state of New York. / AFP / KENA BETANCUR (Photo credit should read KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images)
Donald Trump supporters yell toward people protesting Trump near the site of a campaign appearance by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Bethpage, New York, Wednesday, April 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Bethpage, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a sign handed to him by a supporter after speaking at a campaign rally, Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Bethpage, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
of
SEE ALL
BACK TO SLIDE
SHOW CAPTION +
HIDE CAPTION

In Silver's prior projection, Trump picked up 1,208 delegates, still short of the needed number but conceivably an easier difference to overcome.

That projection came before Trump suffered a crushing defeat in Wisconsin to Ted Cruz, the Texas senator nipping at his heels. Silver had Trump winning 25 delegates in the state. He ended up with only six.

In his latest model, Trump was projected to romp through New York, which holds its primaries next Tuesday, with 85 of 95 delegates expected to go his way. He also was forecast to pick up all 51 delegates in winner-take-all New Jersey and more than half of the available delegates in California, the largest prize left on the map.

But Silver had Trump's total in Indiana reduced from 37 to just nine in his latest model, projecting the state to turn from a Trump victory into an overall loss.

READ MORE: NY Daily News endorses John Kasich over 'dangerous' Donald Trump

In order to hit the magic number of 1,237, Trump would need to have a huge win in Indiana in addition to picking up roughly 20 additional delegates in California, according to Silver.

RELATED: Celebrities who endorse Trump

21 PHOTOS
20 celebrities who endorse Donald Trump
See Gallery
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's chances of locking up the nomination appear to be dwindling

Kid Rock

Kid Rock showed his support for the presidential hopeful in an interview with Rolling Stone, saying he's "digging Trump." He also added, "Let the motherf---ing business guy run it like a f---ing business. And his campaign has been entertaining as shit."

Photo via AP

Mike Tyson
 

The former heavyweight champion announced that he would endorse Trump while appearing on HuffPost Live back in October of 2015. "He should be president of the United States," Tyson said. 

As for what Trump has said about immigration, Tyson said the words were "crude" and someone could work with him on the delivery of his message.

Photo via AP

Stephen Baldwin


Baldwin, who was fired by Trump on two different seasons of "The Celebrity Apprentice," said during an interview with Don Lemon on an episode of "CNN Tonight" that Trump would make a "great" president "because he's not a politician, and he doesn't care what anybody thinks."  

Photo via Getty

Gary Busey

The actor endorsed Trump back in 2011, even after being fired from season four of "The Celebrity Apprentice," and offered his praise for the presidential hopeful again recently. "He's a great guy. He's sharp. He's fast," he told Fox411. "He can change the country after the last eight years."  

Photo via Getty

Dennis Rodman

The retired pro-basketball player tweeted: "@realDonaldTrump has been a great friend for many years. We don't need another politician, we need a businessman like Mr. Trump! Trump 2016." He was fired from season two of "The Celebrity Apprentice." 

Photo via Getty

Lou Ferrigno

When asked by TMZ for his thoughts on Trump, the actor and former bodybuilder said, "I hope Donald goes all the way." He was also fired from a season of "The Celebrity Apprentice." 

Photo via Getty

Hulk Hogan

TMZ asked Hogan which 2016 Republican presidential candidate he would want to face in the ring, but instead of answering the question, he said he'd want to be Trump's running mate. 

Photo via AP

Ted Nugent 

The musician wrote an article for WorldNetDaily in which he said, "[Trump] should be given the Medal of Freedom for speaking his mind in such a bold, honest, and straightforward manner."

Photo via Getty

Tila Tequila 

The model and reality star posted a video on YouTube expressing her support for Trump.

Photo via Getty

Wayne Newton

The Las Vegas entertainer announced his support on "Fox and Friends," “I love Donald, and he would make a great president,” he said. But he also voiced his support for other hopefuls, such as Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson. 

Photo via Getty

Willie Robertson

The businessman and star of A&E’s “Duck Dynasty” supported Trump at a rally in Oklahoma last year, where he was invited up on stage. He officially announced his endorsement in January. 

Photo via Getty

Jesse Ventura 

Jesse Ventura

The former pro wrestler, former Minnesota governor, and actor was speaking with previous Trump staffer Roger Stone for "Off the Grid," when Ventura said, "I shocked my staff today. I came in and said, ‘You know what, as far as the Republicans are concerned, I hope Trump wins.'" Though he also added, "Now I’m not a Republican — I’m not a Democrat either — so ultimately, I’d like somebody else to win overall.”

Photo via Getty

Charlie Sheen 

After initially calling Trump a "shame pile of idiocy" in a tweet, Sheen had a change of heart a month later and tweeted that he'd be Trump's "VP in a heartbeat!"

Photo via AP

Ivana Trump

The socialite held a luncheon in support of her ex-husband. 

Photo via AP

Mike Ditka

The retired NFL coach said of Trump, "I think that he has the fire in his belly to make America great again and probably do it the right way," in an interview with the Chicago Sun-Times. 

Photo via AP

Terrell Owens 

The retired NFL wide receiver told TMZ Sports, "This may be what the country needs and Trump... He’s a guy who won’t put up with B.S. and has what it takes to change how government is run." He appeared on the most recent season of "The Celebrity Apprentice."   

Photo via Getty 

Azealia Banks

Photo via AP

Jesse James 

James, a TV personality and founder of West Coast Choppers, posted a lengthy Facebook message in January supporting his former "Celebrity Apprentice" boss. He said:

 "Ive met a lot of people in life and I have found it best to form opinions about them by actually meeting them in person. ... What I personally observed is a man that is perfect suited to run this country. ... One thing you know about me is Good or bad I will always tell it like it is. This guy is the Real Deal, and will Make America Great Again."

Photo via AP

of
SEE ALL
BACK TO SLIDE
SHOW CAPTION +
HIDE CAPTION

Trump could also edge close to that total if he wins over a good chunk of Pennsylvania's unbound delegation in late April. Republican Pennsylvania voters select their delegates by congressional district, and a total of 54 will be able to vote for whomever they want on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

"Trump could win slightly fewer delegates than I'm expecting in New York and Connecticut but make them up with a bigger win in California," Silver wrote. "So we're not yet at the point where absolutely everything has to go right for Trump to clinch 1,237 delegates after California; although he can't afford major setbacks such as losing Indiana or Maryland."

Here are Trump's totals from Silver's "deterministic" model -- the one he believes is the most likely outcome for Trump in each state:

  • Wyoming: 0
  • New York: 85
  • Maryland: 29
  • Connecticut: 23
  • Rhode Island: 9
  • Pennsylvania: 17
  • Delaware: 16
  • Indiana: 9
  • Nebraska: 0
  • West Virginia: 29
  • Oregon: 11
  • Washington: 15
  • California: 94
  • New Jersey: 51
  • South Dakota: 0
  • Montana: 0
  • New Mexico: 9
  • Total: 397
  • Overall: 1,155

And here are Trump's totals from Silver's "path-to-1,237" model -- essentially, the split that would have to happen for Trump to clinch the nomination:

  • Wyoming: 1
  • New York: 91
  • Maryland: 32
  • Connecticut: 28
  • Rhode Island: 10
  • Pennsylvania: 17
  • Delaware: 16
  • Indiana: 48
  • Nebraska: 0
  • West Virginia: 33
  • Oregon: 12
  • Washington: 18
  • California: 112
  • New Jersey: 51
  • South Dakota: 0
  • Montana: 0
  • New Mexico: 10
  • Total: 479
  • Overall: 1,237

Check out the whole post here.

More from Business Insider:

Read Full Story

People are Reading