Analysts say Chipotle's 'best-case scenario' is recovery by 2018

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Recovery for Chipotle Ahead: Analyst

Chipotle may still have a grueling slog ahead: Analysts now predict it'll be lucky if sales have rebounded by the year 2018 from the company's food-safety disaster. If that weren't bad enough, they add that even then, the chain might not be profitable like it was back in its glory days. Yearly sales at the chain's average restaurant hit more than $2.5 million before the crisis, and the analysts say hitting those kinds of numbers again in two years would be "the best-case scenario, not the base-case scenario." The wall to clear to reach profitability is higher now, too, because the chain is also incurring greater operating costs thanks to its humdinger of a new safety plan, which executives say should make Chipotle "the best in the world at food safety." To all of the above, also add the perhaps overzealous burrito giveaway the chain has going on, which CNBC estimates is worth about $62 million. The generous promo appears to be increasing foot traffic, but in their research note, the analysts at investment firm Wedbush Securities say there's no proof so far Chipotle can sustain that once the coupons are gone.

See photos from the Chipotle health scare:

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Chipotle closings because of E.coli
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Analysts say Chipotle's 'best-case scenario' is recovery by 2018
Passers-by walk near a closed Chipotle restaurant on Monday, Dec. 7, 2015, in the Cleveland Circle neighborhood of Boston. Chipotle said late Monday that it closed the restaurant after several students at Boston College, including members of the menâs basketball team, reported âgastrointestinal symptomsâ after eating at the chain. The school said it was working with local health officials to determine the cause of the illness. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
A sign is posted on the door to a Chipotle restaurant, Monday, Dec. 7, 2015, in the Cleveland Circle neighborhood of Boston. Chipotle said late Monday that it closed the restaurant after several students at Boston College, including members of the menâs basketball team, reported âgastrointestinal symptomsâ after eating at the chain. The school said it was working with local health officials to determine the cause of the illness. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
A customer leaves a Chipotle restaurant in Seattle as the company started to reopen the outlets closed because of an E. coli outbreak in the Pacific Northwest, Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015. (AP Photo/Donna Blankinship)
Customers leave a Chipotle restaurant with food in Portland, Ore., Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015. Chipotle started reopening its restaurants in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday after an E. coli outbreak sickened about 45 people, a high-profile example of foodborne illnesses that are more common than the public realizes, health experts say. Forty-three outposts of the Mexican food chain in Washington state and the Portland, Oregon, area were closed at the end of October because of the outbreak that hospitalized more than a dozen people. The first restaurants opened for lunch Wednesday. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
A customer enjoys lunch at a Chipotle restaurant in Portland, Ore., Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015. Chipotle started reopening its restaurants in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday after an E. coli outbreak sickened about 45 people, a high-profile example of foodborne illnesses that are more common than the public realizes, health experts say. Forty-three outposts of the Mexican food chain in Washington state and the Portland, Oregon, area were closed at the end of October because of the outbreak that hospitalized more than a dozen people. The first restaurants opened for lunch Wednesday. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
Rosanna Fleming enters a Chipotle restaurant for lunch as another customer enters a second door in the background in Portland, Ore., Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015. Chipotle started reopening its restaurants in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday after an E. coli outbreak sickened about 45 people, a high-profile example of foodborne illnesses that are more common than the public realizes, health experts say. Forty-three outposts of the Mexican food chain in Washington state and the Portland, Oregon, area were closed at the end of October because of the outbreak that hospitalized more than a dozen people. The first restaurants opened for lunch Wednesday. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
Workers clean inside a still-closed Chipotle restaurant Monday, Nov. 9, 2015, in Seattle. Health officials in Washington and Oregon have said that more than three dozen people have gotten sick with E. coli in an outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in the two states. More than 40 Chipotle restaurants remain closed in Washington state and the Portland area while authorities search for the cause. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
FILE - In this Nov. 9, 2015, file photo, pedestrians walk past a still-closed Chipotle restaurant in Seattle. An outbreak of E. coli that originated in the Pacific Northwest has spread south and east and has now infected people in six states. New cases have been reported in California, New York and Ohio, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday, Nov. 20, 2015. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)
A worker sits at a counter inside a still-closed Chipotle restaurant Monday, Nov. 9, 2015, in Seattle. Health officials in Washington and Oregon have said that more than three dozen people have gotten sick with E. coli in an outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in the two states. More than 40 Chipotle restaurants remain closed in Washington state and the Portland area while authorities search for the cause. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Workers clean inside a still-closed Chipotle restaurant Monday, Nov. 9, 2015, in Seattle. Health officials in Washington and Oregon have said that more than three dozen people have gotten sick with E. coli in an outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in the two states. More than 40 Chipotle restaurants remain closed in Washington state and the Portland area while authorities search for the cause. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
A closed Chipotle restaurant is shown, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015, in Federal Way, Wash. Chipotle closed 43 of its Pacific Northwest locations after the chain's third foodborne illness this year sickened about two dozen people. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
A pedestrian, right, walks past a closed Chipotle restaurant Monday, Nov. 2, 2015, in Seattle. An E. coli outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in Washington state and Oregon has sickened nearly two dozen people in the third outbreak of foodborne illness at the popular chain this year. Cases of the bacterial illness were traced to six of the fast-casual Mexican food restaurants, but the company voluntarily closed down 43 of its locations in the two states as a precaution. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
A sign posted on the door of a Chipotle restaurant in Portland, Ore. reads that the location is "temporarily closed due to a supply chain issue," on Monday, Nov. 2, 2015. An E. coli outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in Washington state and Oregon has sickened nearly two dozen people in the third outbreak of food borne illness at the popular chain this year. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
FILE - In this Nov. 2, 2015, file photo, a pedestrian walks past a closed Chipotle restaurant in Seattle. Washington state health officials say they have found no source for the E. coli outbreak related to Chipotle and the chain's Pacific Northwest restaurants could reopen later this week. Washington state epidemiologist Dr. Scott Lindquist says all the tests of food from Chipotle stores in Washington and Oregon came back negative for E. coli. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)
A woman talks on the phone as she stands in the kitchen area of a closed Chipotle restaurant, Monday, Nov. 2, 2015, in Seattle. An E. coli outbreak linked to Chipotle restaurants in Washington state and Oregon has sickened nearly two dozen people in the third outbreak of foodborne illness at the popular chain this year. Cases of the bacterial illness were traced to six of the fast-casual Mexican food restaurants, but the company voluntarily closed down 43 of its locations in the two states as a precaution. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Signage hangs from a closed Chipotle restaurant in Portland, Ore., Monday, Nov. 2, 2015. Chipotle voluntarily closed down 43 of its locations in Washington and the Portland area as a precaution after an E. coli outbreak linked to six of its restaurants in the two states has sickened nearly two dozen people. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
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