Nate Silver: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses

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The polling gurus at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight have been tracking the odds of different candidates winning in the early primary and caucus races.

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.

Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46 percent chance of winning, compared with 39 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54 percent chance of winning, compared with 33 percent for Cruz, 11 percent for Rubio, and 1 percent for Carson.

Take a look around Iowa ahead of the caucuses:

23 PHOTOS
A look around Iowa ahead of the caucus
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Nate Silver: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses
DES MOINES, IA - FEBRUARY 01: Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul campaign for their candidate on a busy street corner during morning rush hour on February 1, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. The U.S. presidential election kicks off today with voters taking part in the Iowa Caucus. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 31: The head of an Uncle Sam eagle sits on a bar stool at the Marriott hotel bar on January 31, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. The presidential selection officially kicks February 1 with the Iowa caucuses. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
COUNCIL BLUFFS, IA - JANUARY 31: (EDITORS NOTE: Image was created with a smartphone.) Campaign buttons sit for sale on January 31, 2016 in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 30: Cows are seen in a pasture on January 30, 2016 outside of Des Moines, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 30: An American flag is seen painted on a barn on January 30, 2016 outside of Des Moines, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
SIOUX CITY, IA - JANUARY 30: An old Chevrolet car sits outside an old factory on January 30, 2016 in Sioux City, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
FENTON, IA - JANUARY 29: The sun sets behind wind turbines which the state uses to create nearly 30 percent of all electricity generated on January 29, 2016 in Fenton, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
FENTON, IA - JANUARY 29: A car is seen in the wall of a shed on January 29, 2016 in Fenton, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
MONONA COUNTY, IA - JANUARY 29: A classic Chevrolet pick-up truck sits a barn adorned by Americana memorabilia on January 29, 2016 in Carrol County, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
FENTON, IA - JANUARY 29: A pro-life sign is posted in a field on January 29, 2016 in Fenton, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
CARROLL COUNTY, IA - JANUARY 29: A pro-life campaign poster sits in the vast grand plains of Iowa on January 29, 2016 in Carrol County, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
MONONA COUNTY, IA - JANUARY 29: A poster supporting Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz sits next to a Nativity scene outside the home of a supporter on January 29, 2016 in Carrol County, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are touring the state campaigning for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 28: Campaign signs regarding ethanol are seen January 28, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are all over the state looking for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 28: A campaign billboard of Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush is seen January 28, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. Candidates who are seeking the nominations from the Republican and Democratic Party are all over the state looking for votes before the Iowa caucus that takes place on February 1. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 28: A giant poster of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands in the backyard of a supporter in West Des Moines on January 28, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. Politicians are criss crossing the state looking for votes before the Iowa caucus takes place next week. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - JANUARY 27: A sign sits outside the Des Moines headquarters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in West Des Moines on January 27, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa. Politicians are crisscrossing the state looking for votes before the Iowa caucus takes place next week. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
CRESTON, IA - JANUARY 22: A man stands outside the headquarters for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on January 22, 2016 in Creston, Iowa. Sanders, who is seeking the nomination from the Democratic Party is on the presidential campaign trail across Iowa ahead of the Iowa Caucus taking place February 1. (Photo by Joshua Lott/Getty Images)
URBANDALE, IOWA - JANUARY 22: Marsha Schoolcraft from Helotes, Texas, Mary Elizabeth Jackson from Tyler, Texas, and David Carter from Temple, Texas (L-R), all volunteers, phone bank at the campaign headquarters of Ted Cruz on January 22, 2016 in Urbandale, IA. The Democratic and Republican Iowa Caucuses, the first step in nominating a presidential candidate from each party, will take place on February 1. (Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IOWA - JANUARY 22: Pictures of Hillary Clinton adorn the wall in her campaign headquarters on January 22, 2016 in Des Moines, IA. The Democratic and Republican Iowa Caucuses, the first step in nominating a presidential candidate from each party, will take place on February 1. (Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IOWA - JANUARY 22: Stella Tsantekidou, 21, volunteers at the campaign headquarters of Bernie Sanders on January 22, 2016 in Des Moines, IA. The Democratic and Republican Iowa Caucuses, the first step in nominating a presidential candidate from each party, will take place on February 1. (Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images)
JOHNSTON, IOWA - JANUARY 22: A memorial dedicated to military veterans outside the public library on January 22, 2016 in Johnston, Iowa. The Democratic and Republican Iowa Caucuses, the first step in nominating a presidential candidate from each party, will take place on February 1. (Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images)
DES MOINES, IA - NOVEMBER 16: A political billboard features Republican presidential candidates (L-R) Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Jeb Bush and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and paid for by Nextgen Climate Action Committee is seen November 16, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa. Iowa will hold its caucus on February 1, 2016, the first in the primary season. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
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Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the polls-plus model gives Clinton a 67 percent chance of winning. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) is projected to have a 33 percent chance, and former Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland has a less than 1 percent chance.

Things look even better for Clinton in the polls-only model, with a 72 percent chance of victory, compared with 28 percent for Sanders and a still less than 1 percent chance for O'Malley.

The Republican and Democratic candidates have been brawling ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Trump has become the overwhelming favorite there and in New Hampshire, which hosts the first primary February 9. Trump also has sizable leads nationally.

Clinton, meanwhile, has been staving off a fierce challenge from Sanders, who has surged in recent polls nationally and of the early states.

We'll find out who wins Iowa, for real, on Monday night.

See all the 2016 candidates in Iowa:

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Presidential candidates in Iowa, Caucus
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Nate Silver: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and his family pray during opening of a caucus site, Monday, Feb. 1, 2016 in Clive, Iowa. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton takes photos with workers at her campaign office in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Feb. 1, 2016. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
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