The note explores some of the massive changes coming to the global population over not just the next 50 or 100 years, but the next 10. Unlike many economic forecasts, predictions of what the size of the world's workforce will be like in a decade are pretty predictable, since all the future workers have already been born.
Here's a snippet from the report (emphasis ours):
Demographics have long been a key determinant of potential growth rates, but the change in the global population over the next few years is unprecedented. Japan's population started to shrink in the mid-1990s and Germany's started shrinking around the year 2000, but the world's most populous country, China, is now seeing its working-age population shrink for the first time.
Here's the map, showing a sea of red and pink across the advanced world — that means contraction, no growth or slow growth. Only in a belt of the developing world (in Africa particularly) is there any substantial expansion coming by 2020:
Though the overall global population will continue to grow for some time yet, the growth of the working-age population is slowing down pretty much everywhere.
That's relevant for a bundle of reasons — for starters, it means that around the world there'll be fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees. But it also has some economists expecting significant pressure on wages. If employers have to fight for a group of workers that's growing more slowly, or even declining, they'll need to encourage people to move and their labour will be more valuable.
Here's the chart showing how growth rates will change from 2005-15 to 2015-25, showing barely any advanced economies where the rate of change will improve (Japan's up near the top, but their working population is already in decline. It'll just call less slowly).
The demographic change is a two-sided coin.
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If the upside is wage growth, then the downside is having to deal with a lower level of economic growth for an extremely prolonged period.
Some countries, like Japan, Russia, and parts of Europe, have already entered the stage that the rest of the world is going into — and they've struggled with it.
In Japan, slowing economic growth has made the county's ever-expanding public debt pile more and more difficult to deal with, and the working-age population has already declined by 11.1% in the last 20 years.
Here's another snippet from the report's author:
Smaller populations mean less demand and less potential output. More retirees relative to the number of working-age people means more fiscal pressure: greater expenditure on healthcare and less tax income. Globally, although working-age populations are still growing, we would expect global potential growth to be 0.6ppt lower per year over the next decade compared with the past decade given these demographic changes. Not great news for heavily indebted economies.
Whatever the effects are, this is one forecast that you can rely on — global demographics are shifting, and there's no way to go back.
RELATED GALLERY: See photos of populations around the globe:
Populations across the globe
'The change in the global population over the next few years is unprecedented'
Indian commuters walk at the Churchgate railway station in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, July 11, 2012. India is the second most populous country in the world, with 1.2 billion people, and is expected to overtake China around 2030 when its population soars to an estimated 1.6 billion. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
People displaced by violence walk amongst makeshift shelters in a section of a sprawling camp abutting Mpoko Airport, in Bangui, Central African Republic, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2014. According to the United Nations refugee agency, 100,000 people now live in the airport camp, and more than half the population of the capital is displaced. Insecurity has hindered distribution of food and tarps across the city, and people living at the airport have received virtually no assistance. Doctors Without Borders, who was operating several health posts within the camp, suspended all but emergency services this week amid growing insecurity.(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
A woman rides a rickshaw with a child in a crowded street in New Delhi, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. Al-Qaida has expanded into India, the leader of the terror group said in a video released Thursday, vowing that its militants would bring Islamic law to the entire subcontinent and "wage jihad against its enemies." At least three Indian states with large Muslim populations have been put on alert in the wake of the video's release, local TV stations reported, though there was no indication of an increased security presence. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
NOLA, ITALY - JUNE 28: People look at 25-metre tall 'giglio,' wood and papier-mache statues in the central square during the annual Festa dei Gigli 'The Lily Festival' on June 28, 2015 in Nola, Italy. In 2014 the famous festival became a UNESCO World Heritage site. When St. Paolini, (355- 431 AD) the bishop of Nola, returned in a boat after freeing the town's men from captivity at the hands of the Saracens, he was welcomed by the population with lilies ('gigli'). To carry the Gigli, 120 men, called 'paranza,' shoulder one another and walk slowly through the town. (Photo by Laura Lezza/Getty Images)
A Yemeni street vendor displays bread for sale at Souq al-Melh marketplace in the old city of Sanaa, Yemen, Monday, Nov. 24, 2014. The population of Yemen is expected to reach 26 million by the end of this year according to the United Nations Population Fund. (AP Photo/Hani Mohammed)
Elderly people work out with wooden dumb-bells in the grounds of a temple in Tokyo on September 21, 2015, to celebrate Japan's Respect for the Aged Day. The estimated number of people aged 80 or older in Japan topped 10 million for the first time, the government announced. AFP PHOTO / Yoshikazu TSUNO (Photo credit should read YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty Images)
MANILA, PHILIPPINES - JANUARY 09: Black Nazarene devotees clamber on top of one another to to touch the cross during the Feast of Black Nazarene on January 9, 2015 in Manila, Philippines. The Feast of the Black Nazarene culminates in a day long procession on January 9 as barefoot devotees march to see and touch the image of the Black Nazarene. The Black Nazarene is a dark wood sculpture of Jesus brought to the Philippines in 1606 from Spain and considered miraculous by Filipino devotees. The event falls a week ahead of the visit of Pope Francis who will travel to Leyte and Manila during his visit to the Philippines from January 15 - 19. The visit is expected to attract crowds in the millions as Filipino Catholics flock to catch a glimpse of the leader of the Catholic Church. The Philippines is the only Catholic majority nation in Asia with around 90 percent of the population professing the faith. (Photo by Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)
A Filipino girl is carried by her mother as they join a family planning fair to commemorate World Population Day in Manila, Philippines on Wednesday July 11, 2012. Residents living in slum areas were given free family planning information, counseling and services as the event also coincides with the Global Family Planning Summit in London. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)
People dressed as dancing devils walk down a hill during a traditional dance celebration in Naiguata, Venezuela, Wednesday June 22, 2011. Spanish conquerors and Catholic priests presented dancing devils ceremonies to Latin America's African slave population 200 years ago, who adopted it and incorporated drums into the ritual. The dancing devil ceremony comes the day before the Catholic holiday of Corpus Christi. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
CORK, IRELAND - AUGUST 22: Newly crowned Redhead King and Queen, Alan Reidy and Grainne Keena pose with a crowd full of red heads at the Irish Redhead Convention which celebrates everything to do with red hair held in the village of Crosshaven on August 22, 2015 in Cork, Ireland. Some of the events include the coronation of the Redhead King and Queen, Carrot-tossing, ginger speed-dating, best red beard, best red dog, freckle counting and a redhead parade. The Convention began as a friendly joke between redheaded siblings Joleen and Denis Cronin and also serves as a fundraiser for the Irish Cancer Society raising awareness about skin cancer and melanoma. Red hair is the rarest of hair colours and accounts for just 0.6% of the global population. Ireland has the second highest per capita population of redheads at 10%, next only to Scotland at 13%. The United States is believed to have less than 2% of redheads. (Photo by Clodagh Kilcoyne/Getty Images)
Men kiss during a protest against the homophobic comments of presidential candidate Levy Fidelix, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2014. Fidelix a minor character in Brazil's election race faced a firestorm of criticism on Monday after saying during a presidential debate that the country needs to stand up against gay people who should receive psychological help far away from the general population. The comments drew no reaction from the leading candidates during the nationally televised debate late Sunday. But online and on social media tens of thousands of people denounced Fidelix as homophobic and hateful. (AP Photo/Nelson Antoine)
In this Tuesday, May 5, 2015 photo, rush hour traffic fills the October bridge over the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt. In a country where the population is around 90 million, bumper-to-bumper traffic has increased mostly in the country's capital. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Syrian refugees wait at the port of Lesbos island, Greece, to board a ferry traveling to Athens, on Monday, Sept. 7, 2015. The island of some 100,000 residents has been transformed by the sudden new population of some 20,000 refugees and migrants, mostly from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris)
Egyptians relax outside a cafe in Cairo, Egypt, Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2012. Egyptâs capital prides itself on being city that never sleeps, with crowds filling cafes and shops open into the small hours. So the government is facing a backlash from businesses and the public as it vows to impose new nationwide rules closing stores and restaurants early. Officials say the crisis-ridden nation has to conserve electricity, but they also seem intent on taming a population they see as too unruly. (AP Photo)
In this Sunday, Sept. 29, 2013 photo, an elderly man listens to a speaker at a political rally in New Delhi. Much of the world is not prepared to support the ballooning population of elderly people, including many of the fastest-aging countries, according to a global study scheduled to be released Tuesday, Oct. 1, by the United Nations and an elder rights group. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
In this Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 photo, Egyptian children push each other as a woman takes a photograph of them with her mobile phone in Dierb Biqtaris village on the outskirts of Aga town in Dakahliya, 120 kilometers (75 miles) northeast of Cairo. Egypt's fertility rate, which has been falling since at least 1980, has risen dramatically in the last six years to 3.5 births per woman, according to a new study conducted jointly with Egypt's Ministry of Health and Population and a U.S. Agency for International Development-funded organization. (AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)
Nepalese Hindu women line up in queue to offer prayers at Gokarna Shiva temple on the outskirts of Kathmandu, Nepal, Monday, July 25, 2011. Hindus make up the majority of the population in Nepal, which was officially a Hindu nation until 2006.(AP Photo/Binod Joshi)
Supporters belonging to India's lower castes listen to Uttar Pradesh state Chief Minister Mayawati, unseen, as she addresses a rally in Lucknow, India, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2011. One of India's poorest states, Uttar Pradesh, has 200 million people, a larger population than all but five countries in the world. (AP Photo)
Extreme right-wing demonstrators give a salute and shout slogans as they hold an alternative celebration for Spain's National Day in Barcelona, Spain, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2013. A few hundred demonstrators attended the alternative celebrations. Thousands of other Spaniards gathered in Barcelona on Saturday to assert their right to be Spanish as well as Catalan in a protest designed to prove to separatists that a significant proportion of the northeastern regionâs population is against splitting away from Spain. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
In this Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014 photo, a woman looks on at the mortars exploding close by in Kobani, Syria. Here, Kurdish fighters backed by small numbers of Iraqi peshmerga forces and Syrian rebels, are locked in what they see as an existential battle against the Islamic State group, who swept into their town in mid-September as part of a summer blitz after the Islamic State group overran large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq. But the battle comes with an onerous price for the townâs residents. While most managed to flee across the nearby border with Turkey, some 2,000 Kurdish civilians have opted to stay with the hope that fighting will soon subside _ a shocking contrast from the population of 50,000 that once filled these streets. (AP Photo/Jake Simkin)
In this Jan. 20, 2013 photo, children play with bubbles during events celebrating the 12th anniversary of the village of Kuetuvy in the Canindeyu department of Paraguay. The Ache are hunter-gatherers whose population of roughly 1,200 is distributed in five villages in eastern Paraguay. They also celebrated the recent success of their exports to the United States of shade-grown, organic yerba mate, a drink brewed from the leaves of the rainforest holly tree. In 2010, Paraguayâs Congress gave them formal title to the land. (AP Photo/Jorge Saenz)
LHOKSUKON, ACEH, INDONESIA - MAY 13: Rohingya and Bangladesh migrants rest inside a shelter on May 13, 2015 in Lhoksukon, Aceh province, Indonesia. Boats carrying over 500 of Myanmar's Rohingya refugees have arrived in Indonesia, many requiring medical attention. They have warned that thousands more are thought to be still at sea. Myanmar's Rohingya Muslim community have long been persecuted and marginalized by Myanmar's mostly Buddhist population. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images)