NATE SILVER: 73% chance that the Super Bowl will be won by 1 of these 5 teams

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After six weeks of the NFL season, the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers are the heavy favorites to meet in the Super Bowl, and only three other teams have a legit shot to win it all.

Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.

Heading into Week 7, the Patriots are still the favorite and their chances are still growing, up from 19% two weeks ago and 23% last week, to 24% this week. The Packers are the favorite in the NFC with a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Check out the latest AOL.com power rankings:

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NFL Rankings 10-20-15
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NATE SILVER: 73% chance that the Super Bowl will be won by 1 of these 5 teams

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

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(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

31. Chicago Bears (2-4)

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 (AP Photo/Jose Juarez)

30. Detroit Lions (1-5)

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(AP Photo/Jose Juarez)

29. San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

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(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

28. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

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(AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

27. Tennessee Titans (1-4)

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(AP Photo/James Kenney)

26. New Orleans Saints (2-4)

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AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

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(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

24. Houston Texans (2-4)

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(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)

23. Baltimore Ravens (1-5)

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(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

22. Washington Redskins

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 (AP Photo/Gary Hershorn)

21. Oakland Raiders (2-3)

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(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

20. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

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(AP Photo/Brandon Wade, File)

19. Cleveland Browns (2-4)

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(AP Photo/Aaron Josefczyk)

18. St. Louis Rams

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(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

17. Miami Dolphins (2-3)

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(AP Photo/Weston Kenney)

16. San Diego Chargers (2-4)

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(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

15. Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

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(AP Photo/John Minchillo)

14. Seattle Seahawks (2-4)

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(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

13. New York Giants (3-3)

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(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

12. Buffalo Bills (3-3)

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(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

11. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

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(AP Photo/Michael Perez)

10. Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

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(AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

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(AP Photo/Don Wright)

8. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

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AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

7. New York Jets (4-1)

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AP Photo/Gary Hershorn)

6. Carolina Panthers (5-0)

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(AP Photo/Ryan Kang)

5. Denver Broncos (6-0)

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(AP Photo/David Richard)

4. Atlanta Falcons (5-1)

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(AP Photo/David Goldman)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-0)

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(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

2. Green Bay Packers (6-0)

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(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

1. New England Patriots (6-0)

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(AP Photo/John Minchillo)

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Of the projections run this week by Silver's model, 73% of the seasons ended with one of these teams winning the Super Bowl:

  1. New England Patriots, 24%
  2. Green Bay Packers, 19%
  3. Denver Broncos, 13%
  4. Cincinnati Bengals, 9%
  5. Carolina Panthers, 8%

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals are next on the list, with both having a 4% chance of winning it all.

The Broncos (96%) and Bengals (96%) join the Patriots (99%) and Packers (97%) this week as the first teams to eclipse a 95% chance of making the postseason, making them virtual locks for the playoffs after just six weeks. The Carolina Panthers are on the cusp at 92%.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are still just three teams without a legit shot to make the playoffs. The Detroit Lions (4%), Jacksonville Jaguars (3%), and Cleveland Browns (2%) all have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs.

Here are the eight teams with the best chance to win each division:

  • AFC East — New England Patriots, 89% chance to win their division
  • AFC North — Cincinnati Bengals, 76%
  • AFC South — Indianapolis Colts, 68%
  • AFC West — Denver Broncos, 94%
  • NFC East — Philadelphia Eagles, 38%
  • NFC North — Green Bay Packers, 90%
  • NFC South — Carolina Panthers, 62%
  • NFC West — Arizona Cardinals, 49%

You can see the full projections at FiveThirtyEight.

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See the best NFL photos from the last week:

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NATE SILVER: 73% chance that the Super Bowl will be won by 1 of these 5 teams
San Diego Chargers' Malcom Floyd (80) is tackled Green Bay Packers' Ha Ha Clinton-Dix during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
INDIANAPOLIS - OCTOBER 18: New England Patriots Brandon Bolden and New England Patriots defense weren't fooled when the Indianapolis Colts lined up in a strange punt formation as Bolden and cornerback Logan Ryan grabbed Indianapolis Colts Colt Anderson and took him to the turf on the play in the third quarter. The New England Patriots take on the Indianapolis Colts in a Sunday night football game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. on Oct. 18, 2015. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas (80) makes a catch in front of Houston Texans cornerback Johnathan Joseph during the first half of an NFL football game in Jacksonville, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Tennessee Titans safety Da'Norris Searcy (21) brings down Miami Dolphins wide receiver Rishard Matthews (18) in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) can't hold onto the ball under pressure from Cleveland Browns defensive back Tramon Williams (22) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Richard)
Cleveland Browns running back Robert Turbin (27) stiff-arms Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris (25) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Aaron Josefczyk)
Detroit Lions outside linebacker Josh Bynes (57) deflects a pass intended for Chicago Bears tight end Martellus Bennett (83) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Jose Juarez)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 18: Guard A.J. Cann #60 of the Jacksonville Jaguars emerges from a cloud of smoke during the team's intro before the game against the Houston Texans at EverBank Field on October 18, 2015 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Texans defeated the Jaguars 31 to 20. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - OCTOBER 18: Wide receiver Ricardo Lockette #83 of the Seattle Seahawks makes a catch for a touchdown against defensive back Kurt Coleman #20 of the Carolina Panthers in the third quarter at CenturyLink Field on October 18, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. The Panthers defeated the Seahawks 27-23. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 18: Larry Fitzgerald #11 of the Arizona Cardinals leaps over Antwon Blake #41 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1st half of the gmae at Heinz Field on October 18, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS - OCTOBER 18: New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount hurtles into the end zone for his second touchdown of the game, scoring this one in the fourth quarter. The New England Patriots take on the Indianapolis Colts in a Sunday night football game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. on Oct. 18, 2015. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - OCTOBER 18: Wide receiver Quinton Patton #11 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates in the stands after a 21-yard touchdown catch against the Baltimore Ravens during their NFL game at Levi's Stadium on October 18, 2015 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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