El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November

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A Quick Warm Up Is a Bit of a Set Up

By Alex Sosnowski for Accuweather

Warm weather beginning to grip the Midwest and Northeast is expected to last well into November with only brief interruptions of cooler blasts of air. The warm pattern will spurred on by El Niño.

El Niño is the warm phase of routine water temperature fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can alter weather patterns around a large part of the globe.

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"The weather pattern in much of the Midwest and Northeast will feature more mild days than cool days from the middle of this week into early November," According to AccuWeather Long Range Meteorologist Ben Noll.

The cold pattern and snow from last weekend had roots in north-central Canada. Strong winds aloft, or the jet stream, lined up with surface winds and allowed the cold air to quickly drain a couple thousand miles to the south.


"We have a real El Niño pattern kicking across much of the nation now," Noll said. "The prevailing jet stream over much of the nation will be from the west or southwest in the upcoming weeks."


A couple of dips of cool air will follow and graze the Great Lakes and the Northeast through early November, but they will be fast-moving and will pale in comparison to the cold blast from this past weekend.

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "When compared to this past weekend in the Midwest and Northeast, the weather is not likely to get that cold again until November."

The cool air coming into the Upper Midwest on Thursday and exiting New England on Saturday will originate from southern Canada, rather than the North Pole.


During the warmest days from now into early November, temperatures will climb well into the 50s to the lower 60s in the northern tier states and well into the 70s over the Ohio Valley and much of the mid-Atlantic coast.

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During the second half of October, normal temperatures trend downward but generally range from the upper 40s and lower 50s across the northern tier to the middle 60s around the Ohio Valley and much of the mid-Atlantic coast.

See photos of El Niño's effects:

El Nino's effects
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El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November
NOAA has released an update to its El Niño advisory. This image shows the satellite sea surface temperature departure for the month of October 2015, where orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Niño. This event is forecast to continue through the winter, likely ranking as one of the top 3 strongest events since 1950, before fading in late spring or early summer. El Niño has already produced significant global impacts, and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months. Seasonal outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. (Photo via NOAA)
This combo of images provided by NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration), shows the three-month temperature, left, and precipitation forecasts for the U.S. Forecasters say this winter El Nino is about to leave a big wet but not necessarily snowy footprint on much of the United States, including parched California. NOAA on Thursday issued a winter forecast, heavily influenced by one of the strongest El Ninos on record. (NOAA via AP)
This combo of images provided by NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration), shows the three-month temperature, left, and precipitation forecasts for the U.S. Forecasters say this winter El Nino is about to leave a big wet but not necessarily snowy footprint on much of the United States, including parched California. NOAA on Thursday issued a winter forecast, heavily influenced by one of the strongest El Ninos on record. (NOAA via AP)
These false-color images provided by NASA satellites compare warm Pacific Ocean water temperatures from the strong El Nino that brought North America large amounts of rainfall in 1997, left, and the current El Nino as of Oct. 1, 2015, right. Warmer ocean water that normally stays in the western Pacific, shown from cooler to warmer as lighter orange to red to white areas, moves east along the equator toward the Americas. Evidence is mounting that the El Nino ocean-warming phenomenon in the Pacific will spawn a rainy winter in California, potentially easing the stateâs punishing drought but also bringing the risk of chaotic storms like those that battered the region in the late 1990s. In the clearest warning yet that Southern California could be due for a deluge, meteorologists said in a report last week that the already strong El Nino has a 95 percent chance of lasting through the winter before weakening in the spring. (NASA via AP)
Roofer Chuck Jewett, right, and a worker with Hull Brothers Roofing & Waterproofing check a water leak from a an air condition unit before resurfacing a roof at town homes at the Marina del Rey seaside community of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2015. While drought-plagued California is eager for rain, the forecast of a potentially Godzilla-like El Nino event has communities clearing out debris basins, urging residents to stock up on emergency supplies and even talking about how a deluge could affect the 50th Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
MAKASSAR, SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA - SEPTEMBER 21: Two girls are seen walk behind of dried up ricefield at Manggara Bombang village, Maros district on September 21, 2015 in Makassar, Indonesia. Indonesia's national disaster management agency has declared that the majority of the country's 34 provinces are experiencing drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, the worst drought in the past five years. The dry season forces villagers to walk long distances to find clean water. (Photo by Agung Parameswara/Getty Images)
NOAA issued an update to the El Niño analysis on September 10, 2015, in which forecasters from the Climate Predication Center say a strong El Niño is in place and likely to peak in late fall/early winter, and gradually weaken through spring 2016. This image shows the satellite-based average sea surface temperature data from the week of August 31 - September 6, 2015. Blue areas are cooler than the 1981-2010 average; red areas are warmer than that historical base period. The large pool of warmer than average temperatures along the equatorial Pacific is indicative of the El Niño conditions. (Photo via NOAA)
Sea surface temperature anomalies in November 1997 (left) compared to July 2015 (right). (Photo via NOAA)
This June 19, 2015 aerial photo shows a white heron taking flight over revealed fish nests, normally inches below the waterline in La Plata reservoir in Toa Alta, Puerto Rico. Thanks to El Nino, a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global weather, less rain fell to help refill Puerto Rico’s La Plata reservoir, as well as La Plata river in the central island community of Naranjito. A tropical disturbance that hit the U.S. territory on Monday did not fill up those reservoirs as officials had anticipated. (AP Photo/Ricardo Arduengo)
This June 15, 2015 photo shows mud cracks at the drought affected Carraizo reservoir in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico. Thanks to El Nino, a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global weather, the worst drought in five years is creeping across the Caribbean, prompting officials around the region to brace for a bone dry summer. (AP Photo/Ricardo Arduengo)
FILE - In this June 22, 2015 file photo, a combine moves on to the next field while an other makes its last cut while harvesting wheat near Andover, Kan. Concerns about the quantity and quality of the U.S. winter wheat crop and an El Nino weather pattern blamed for dry conditions in other wheat producing nations have sparked a recent run up in wheat prices. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner, File)
FILE - In this July 12, 2006 file photo, a Joshua tree is engulfed in flames as the Sawtooth Complex fire burns out of control near Yucca Valley, Calif. In the California desert, Joshua tree seedlings are shriveling up and dying before they get the chance to put down strong roots. The species has weathered threats before. In the 1990s, moist El Nino conditions triggered explosive growth of exotic grasses that established themselves and left the forests vulnerable to large-scale brush fires. One such blaze charred 14,000 acres in 1999.(AP Photo/Nick Ut, File)
A couple tries to cool off from the heat caused by El Nino with water overflowing from a defunct but still watery reservoir called the Wawa dam in Montalban in Rizal, east of Manila on February 21, 2010. El Niño was expected to dehydrate the Metro Manila area over in the next two months, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). Earlier this month the government warned a possible drought caused by the El Nino weather system could slash Philippines rice yields this year. AFP PHOTO / NOEL CELIS (Photo credit should read NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)
Tons of dead fish are seen on the banks of the Solimoes River due the water's low level, November 25, 2009 near Manaquiri, 120Km from Manaus. The dry season, affected by the weather phenomenon EL Nino, is worse this year. According a study from Brazil's universities USP,UNICAMP,UFRJ and Embrapa, the country could lose some USD 3.6 billion over the next 40 years. AFP PHOTO / ANTONIO SCORZA (Photo credit should read ANTONIO SCORZA/AFP/Getty Images)
This June 19, 2015 aerial photo shows the drought affected lakeshore of La Plata reservoir in Toa Alta, Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico expanded water rationing across several municipalities as it continues to confront a drought of potentially historic proportions. Thanks to El Nino, a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global weather, and a quieter-than-normal hurricane season that began in June, forecasters expect a shorter wet season. (AP Photo/Ricardo Arduengo)
FILE - This Feb. 28, 2012 file photo shows a snow blower clearing a road after an overnight storm dropped several inches of snow near Echo Summit Calif. The weather forecast for this winter is mostly a shrug of the shoulders. For most of the nation, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts equal chances for unusual warmth, cold, snow, rain and even average weather. That’s because certain global weather factors, like El Nino, aren’t big and apparent. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
FILE - In this Wednesday, Aug. 3, 2011 file photo, Texas State Park police officer Thomas Bigham walks across the cracked lake bed of O.C. Fisher Lake in San Angelo, Texas. A combination of the long periods of 100-plus degree days and the lack of rain in the drought-stricken region has dried up the lake that once spanned over 5400 acres. The year 2011 brought a record heat wave to Texas, massive floods in Bangkok and an unusually warm November in England. How much has global warming boosted the chances of events like that? Quite a lot in Texas and England, but apparently not at all in Bangkok, according to new analyses released Tuesday, July 10, 2012. Researchers calculated that global warming has made such a Texas heat wave about 20 times more likely to happen during a La Nina year. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
FILE - In this Feb. 24, 1998 file photo, a woman waits for a tow truck on the hood of her brother's pickup after a wall of mud plowed down Laguna Beach Canyon Road in Orange County, Calif. forcing her to evacuate her home, in background. A long anticipated El Nino weather warping is finally here. But for drought-struck California, it’s too little, too late, meteorologists say. The National Weather Service Thursday proclaimed the somewhat infamous weather phenomenon El Nino is now in place. It’s a warming of a certain patch of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide, associated with flooding in some places, droughts elsewhere, a generally warmer globe, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. El Ninos are usually so important that economists even track it because of how it affects commodities. This year's El Nino that has arrived isn’t big and is late so it’s unlikely to do much to alleviate the current California drought. (AP Photo/Nick Ut, File)
Heavy clouds covers Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta on November 29, 2009. The month of November ends the dry season and starts the wet period but the weather bureau anticipates El Nino's dry spell to affect Indonesian weather. AFP PHOTO / Bay ISMOYO (Photo credit should read BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images)
FILE - In this Oct. 6, 2014 file photo, a dock sits high and dry at the end of a boat ramp yards away from the edge of Folsom Lake near Folsom, Calif. Don’t blame man-made global warming for the devastating California drought, a new federal report says. A report issued Monday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said natural variations _ mostly a La Nina weather oscillation _ were the primary drivers behind the drought that has now stretched to three years. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
In this Monday Feb.22, 2010 photo, a fisherman works on his Tilapia farm at a lake in San Pablo, Laguna province south of Manila, Philippines as the country braces for a dry spell caused by El Nino phenomenon. On Friday Feb.26, 2010, with a reported fish kill in a dam in northern Philippines due to soaring temperatures, the Government's Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, BFAR, advises fish pond owners slowly being affected by the phenomenon, to harvest their matured fishes to avoid fish-kill. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

"The overall pattern during the next two weeks is also likely to continue through November with most days bringing above-average temperatures across the northern United States," Noll said.

The same pattern can allow storm systems and fronts to tap into the warm air and subtropical moisture in the Southern states.

The upsurge of severe weather during the fall is often called the "secondary severe weather season," and can be enhanced by El Niño conditions.

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According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, "The surge of warm and moist air ahead of advancing cool fronts could bring significant outbreaks of severe weather, especially over the Plains, Midwest and South during the balance of the autumn."

One such severe weather outbreak may begin on the southern and central Plains Thursday into Friday, following locally heavy storms and flash flooding in the Rockies through midweek, Margusity said.

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El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November
Click through to see more images of weird weather around the U.S.
Cal Fire engineer Clint Singleton looks out at a plume of smoke near Clearlake, Calif., Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2015. Thousands of firefighters battling an unruly Northern California wildfire were aided overnight by cooler temperatures and higher humidity, but the fire is still less than a quarter contained. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Corn damaged by heavy rains stands in a field in Sheridan, Ind., Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2015. The U.S. Department of Agriculture says farmers in 88 of Indiana's 92 counties are eligible for low-interest emergency loans because of heavy rains and flooding that have occurred since May 1. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
In a view from Whittier, Calif., the sun sets behind a hazy downtown Los Angeles after a week of high temperatures from the view Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015. (AP Photo/Nick Ut)
A child plays in the sprinklers of Seward park, Monday, Aug. 17, 2015, in New York. Temperatures are expected to reach into the 90s in the New York metro area. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer) (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
Beach goers crowd at Venice Beach, Calif., Sunday, Aug. 16, 2015. The Western heat wave began Thursday and was expected to continue through Sunday. Authorities warned people not to leave small children or pets in cars, where temperatures can quickly soar. Los Angeles and other cities were keeping libraries and other facilities open late to serve as cooling shelters for those without air conditioning.(AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
Storm clouds build over the left field stands in Coors Field during the fifth inning of an inter league baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies Monday, Aug. 3, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Debris rests on the ground after a garage was damaged by fallen tree during a severe thunderstorm in Traverse City, Mich., Sunday, Aug. 2, 2015. Authorities said gusts as high as 65 mph left thousands without power, damaged houses and left some roads impassable. (AP Photo/John Flesher)
A vehicle drives through a puddle after heavy rainfall, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2015, in Albany, N.Y. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are expected in the region through Wednesday. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)
Firefighters walk under smoke from fires along Morgan Valley Road near Lower Lake, Calif., Friday, July 31, 2015. A series of wildfires were intensified by dry vegetation, triple-digit temperatures and gusting winds. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA, NV - AUGUST 03: The ruins of the Hannig Ice Cream Parlor are shown in the ghost town of St. Thomas on August 3, 2015 in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Nevada. The town was founded in 1865 by Mormon pioneers at the site where the Muddy River flowed into the Colorado River and at one point had about 500 settlers. The town was abandoned in 1938 after the construction of the Hoover Dam caused the Colorado River to rise. The area was once submerged in 60 feet of water but became entirely exposed to the air as a severe drought in the Western United States over the last 15 years has caused Lake Mead to drop to historic low levels. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - JULY 30: A severe thunderstorm passes over the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, July 30, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
Clouds accompany hot, muggy weather over downtown Los Angeles and the Walt Disney Concert Hall, Thursday, July 30, 2015. July is wrapping up in California with more of the unusual weather that has marked the normally very dry month. Flash-flood watches are posted across the interior mountains and deserts of southern and eastern California as monsoonal moisture brings thunderstorms.(AP Photo/Nick Ut)
Motorists drive through heavy rain along Ninth Avenue, Thursday, July 30, 2015 in New York. More showers are predicted through the night, but skies are expected to clear by Friday morning. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
Two youths play in the Swann Memorial Fountain Thursday, July 30, 2015, in Philadelphia. According to the National Weather Service temperatures are expected to reach 90-degrees. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Young people cross a street during a rainstorm Thursday, July 30, 2015, in Philadelphia. According to the National Weather Service temperatures are expected to reach 90-degrees. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Walter Swinehart cools off in the Swann Memorial Fountain, Thursday, July 30, 2015, in Philadelphia. According to the National Weather Service temperatures are expected to reach 90-degrees. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
A man cools off in the water sprinklers at Sara Delano Roosevelt Park, Wednesday, July 29, 2015, in New York. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for New York City through 8 p.m. Thursday. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
Clouds hang over City Hall Tuesday evening, July 28, 2015, in Commerce City, Colo. Forecasters predict continued warm weather for Colorado's Front Range communities in the week ahead. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Storm clouds build over the Rocky Mountains in Colorado as the sun sets late Friday, July 24, 2015. Forecasters predict that the cool, stormy weather of Friday will move out for daytime highs hovering in the 90s for the weekend ahead. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
In this Tuesday, July 21, 2015, photo, Wendover Mayor Mike Crawford stands along the exposed mud track on the Bonneville Salt Flats, in Utah. Crawford, who owns an auto parts shop in town, said the decision by race organizers to cancel this year’s event weeks away will be a bigger economic blow than last year, when a monsoon storm left standing water on the track on the eve of the race. Wet weather has forced the second-straight cancellation of an annual race at Utah’s world-famous Bonneville Salt Flats. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
A teenager checks his cell phone as storm clouds pass Friday, July 17, 2015, in Zionsville, Ind. Scattered storms were in the forecast for most of Friday evening. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
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Smoke drifting south from wildfires burning in Canada clouds the skyline Tuesday, July 7, 2015, in Denver. A smoke advisory was issued for the northeastern part of Colorado, Monday and expanded to all counties east of the Continental Divide Tuesday. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Vehicles struggle to navigate through the intersection of Eighth Avenue and Grant Street south of downtown Denver as a severe thunderstorm swept over the metropolitan area late Thursday, June 25, 2015. Forecasters have issued a severe thunderstorm warning for communities south and east of Denver for Thursday night. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 17: People enjoy a hot afternoon at the Astoria Pool in the borough of Queens on August 17, 2015 in New York City. The main pool, the biggest in New York City and administered by the New York City Department of Parks and Recreation, sees over 3,000 people on a typical summer weekday. New York city is in the middle of a heat wave, with temperatures in the high nineties and with a heat factor making it feel over 100 degrees. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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