US Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize Northeast; Wintry Blasts to Slick South

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US Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize Northeast; Wintry Blasts to Slick South
Ann Palermo cleans snow off her car in Long Beach Township on Long Beach Island, N.J., Monday, March 17, 2014. Some parts of the New Jersey shore have 7 inches of fresh snow on the ground from a late-winter storm. By midmorning, skies were clearing and the winter weather warning that had covered the central part of the state was canceled. A warning remained in effect in five southern New Jersey Counties. Totals ranged from about 5 inches in some far-flung Philadelphia suburbs to less than 2 inches in Freehold. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)
A young girl tosses snow from an Interstate 76 embankment as she and others play, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014, in Philadelphia. Snow and sleet are falling on the East Coast, from North Carolina to New England, a day after sleet, snow and ice bombarded the Southeast. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
A pedestrian crosses South Broad Street in view of City Hall as mixed winter precipitation falls Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014, in Philadelphia. Snow and sleet are falling on the East Coast, from North Carolina to New England, a day after sleet, snow and ice bombarded the Southeast. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Rental cars are covered with snow at Dulles International Airport (IAD), in Sterling, Virginia near Washington, DC February 13, 2014. On Thursday, over a hundred flights were canceled at Dulles International Airport which typically has 750 flights on a normal day. Specialty website FlightAware said airlines canceled at least 3,700 flights on February 12th and had already shelved 5,500 for Thursday, including many flights to and from New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Washington. The latest brutal freeze to hammer the eastern states of the country since the start of the year has been dubbed 'snowmaggedon,' 'mind-boggling' and 'historic' by major television networks and forecasters. AFP PHOTO/Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA - DECEMBER 8: Punter Sam Martin #6 of the Detroit Lions punts the ball during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles on December 8, 2013 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles won 34-20. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Philadelphia Eagles/Getty Images)
A pedestrian pauses to take a photograph, right, of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, March 3, 2014. Temperatures plummeted across the U.S., bringing snow, grounding flights and closing schools and government offices as a late winter storm zeroed in on Washington, sparing New York City a direct hit. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The U.S. Treasury, right, sits covered in snow in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, March 3, 2014. Temperatures plummeted across the U.S., bringing snow, grounding flights and closing schools and government offices as a late winter storm zeroed in on Washington, sparing New York City a direct hit. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 13: A worker with the New York City Parks and Recreation Department uses a snowblower along the Promenade during a snow storm February 13, 2013 in the Brooklyn borough of New York. In what is turning out to be one of the snowiest winter's in recent memory for New York City and ouch of the East Coast, Thursday's weather is expected to bring a wintery mix of sleet and snow with total accumulation of 6 to 8 inches of snow before ending early Friday morning. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)
FILE - In this Feb. 12, 2014 snow plows clear a highway after a winter storm brought Atlanta to standstill. As spring officially begins Thursday, officials across much of the nation are still paying the bills for keeping roads clear during the cold, snowy winter. Atlanta is dipping into a rainy-day fund to cover $13.5 million in cleanup costs. (AP Photo/David Tulis, File)
A snow covered side street shows the effects of an overnight snowstorm Wednesday, March 12, 2014, in Blue Island, Ill. A late winter storm dumped more than 5 inches of snow in the Chicago area, causing power outages and headaches for commuters. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)
FILE - In this Feb. 12, 2014, file photo, vehicles travel on a snow-covered Interstate 85 in Greenville, S.C., during the worst winter storm in the state in a decade. Gov. Nikki Haley on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 asked President Obama to declare 21 of the state's 46 counties a federal disaster area as a result of the storm. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt, File)
Yellow taxicab stuck in snow in New York City winter
Winter 2014. New York City.
Cars covered in snow and ice are parked along what appears to be an abandoned Broadway Street in Paducah, Ky., Monday, March 3, 2014. A winter storm brought ice, sleet and snow to the region hampering travel and business. Area colleges, school and shopping centers have closed. (AP Photo/Stephen Lance Dennee)
A runner runs along the lake shore in Chicago, Friday, Fen. 21, 2014. Strong winds and icy roads made for a difficult commute this morning as a powerful storm lingered for a second day. The National Weather Service says a wind advisory remains in effect for the city until 3 p.m. Forecasters say gusts could reach 45 miles per hour. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Visitors take pictures of an ice filled Chicago River Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2014, in downtown Chicago. Weeks of subfreezing weather are giving way, at least briefly, to temperatures in the 50s, putting cities on guard for flooding, roof collapses and clogged storm drains. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
This photo released Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2014 by the Massachusetts State Police shows a car being pulled up by wrecker along Interstate 190 in West Boylston, Mass. A quick-moving storm blew through the winter-weary East Coast and into New England, with several inches of snow falling throughout the region. (AP Photo/Massachusetts State Police, Dustin Fitch)
A pedestrian is under snow covered trees on Boston Common in Boston, Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2014. A speedy winter storm that blew through parts of the Great Lakes and East on Tuesday is expected to leave a trail of warmer weather and rain that should provide a respite for residents weary of weeks of bitter cold but also create the potential for flooding and collapsing roofs in some areas. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
A board displays cancelled flights at Logan International Airport in Boston on Saturday evening, Feb. 15, 2014. Another round of snow made its way into the Northeast on the heels of a storm that brought snow and ice to the East Coast, caused at least 25 deaths and left hundreds of thousands without power. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
Sunlight reflects off spotlight on the Philadelphia Museum of Art as people sled down its steps, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2014, in Philadelphia. A winter storm stretched from Kentucky to New England and hit hardest along the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor between Philadelphia and Boston. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
A pedestrian walks through a snow storm, Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2014, in Philadelphia. A storm is sweeping across the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The National Weather Service said the storm could bring 8 to 12 inches of snow to Philadelphia and New York City, and more than a foot in Boston. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
BOSTON - FEBRUARY 16: Elsy Velasquez, front, and her crew are just about done servicing homes in Harvard Commons. Velasquez Bros is a family snow shoveling business. Velasquez shoveling the morning after a winter snow storm on Sunday, February 16, 2014. (Photo by Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Pedestrians walk through the snow past the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, Jan. 3, 2014. Wind-driven snow whipped through New Yorks streets and piled up in Boston as a fast-moving storm brought near-blizzard conditions to parts of the Northeast, closing roads, grounding flights and shutting schools. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images
BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 4: Snow is piled up high in front of Home Depot in the South Bay shopping center after a two day winter storm January 4, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts. The storm began mid day Thursday with heavy snows overnight into Friday bringing with it extreme cold. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


Though parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic had a gradual introduction to fall, winter will arrive without delay. Cold air and high snow amounts will define the season.

Farther south, ice storms and snow events will threaten the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Much of the South can prepare for a wet winter, with some severe weather encroaching on Florida.

The northern Plains will be somewhat inconsistent with variable, back-and-forth temperatures and below-normal snowfall. Meanwhile, the drought will persist in the Northwest and northern California and ease slightly farther south.

A breakdown of the 2014-2015 U.S. Winter Forecast can be found below.

JUMP TO: Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season| Rain, Snow, Ice All Threats for Southeast, Gulf States, Tennessee Valley | Dry, Less Harsh Winter In Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, northern and central Plains | El Nino May Lead to High Moisture Into Southern Plains, Interior Southwest | Winter Precipitation Won't Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought |POLL: What Type of Winter Are You Hoping For?

Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season

After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season.

Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.

"I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent," Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

"The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings."

In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor.

"Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said.

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Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit.

The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.

"I'm very concerned about the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as far as extremes go this year," Pastelok said.

Areas from eastern Texas all the way up to eastern Kentucky could be under the gun for ice events this season. The region will likely see this in January, but the I-10 corridor should be on guard for a sneaky late-January or early-February storm.

Overall, the region will have a very wet winter, but the timing of these storms will determine whether a flood risk exists.

"These are big storms that are going to form and put down a lot of rain, but there may be breaks in between," Pastelok said.

"The Gulf hasn't been disturbed from tropical activity, so the warmer waters may hang on into the middle part of the winter and give us that extra boost into some of these systems coming up the East Coast."

The weather pattern, a weak El Nino, paired with the southern storm track and rich moisture source will set up Florida for a significant severe weather potential in mid- to late winter. Tornadoes will be possible from mid-January to February.

Dry, Less Harsh Winter in Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northern and Central Plains

In a story similar to the Northeast, the winter season has several cold months planned for the Midwest, though not quite as extreme as last year.

Temperature wise, areas such as Duluth, Minnesota, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, may be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year's three-month average.

Below-normal snowfall totals are also forecast.

Chicago could fail to reach 30 inches this year, and Minneapolis has an even greater chance of falling below normal.

Farther west, the northern and central Plains will endure roller-coaster temperatures. Fewer clipper systems than normal will reach down into the area, preventing high overall snow totals.

El Nino May Lead to High Moisture in Southern Plains, Interior Southwest

A weak El Nino pattern, which is expected to unfold, may lead to high moisture in the Southwest.

"That moisture source is needed to get above-normal snowfall for the region. I do believe there are going to be periods where moisture gets in there," Pastelok said.

If it does, the Four Corners region, including Albuquerque, could get near- to slightly above-normal snowfall totals this year.

"Northwestern Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, they can also see near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this year," Pastelok said.

Winter Precipitation Won't Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought

As California suffers through its fourth and most extreme year of drought, the state is in dire need of precipitation this winter.

"California, the northern Sierra and Sierra Nevada are going to be below normal, although I do think that they are going to get enough snow to hold back the drought just a little bit from getting any worse than it is," Pastelok said.

December will bring some rain to northern California, but the precipitation will ease off in the following months, making the region drier than normal by February. After a season of intense wildfires, the precipitation that reaches the Northwest will not be enough to prevent problems next year.

However, the winter isn't all bad news for the drought-stricken region, Pastelok said.

The weather pattern will allow some Eastern Pacific moisture to be pulled in, causing some big events which will increase the snowfall rates in the mountains.

Additionally, Southern California looks to fare better than its northern counterpart with slightly above-normal precipitation this season, especially in areas farther from the coast.

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