Durable Goods Show Record Decline, Following Record Gain

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A350_XWBDurable goods are showing a record drop for the month of August, but that is on the heels of a record gain in the month of July. August's durable goods reading from the Commerce Department came in at -18.2%, worse than the -17.5% consensus from Dow Jones and even worse than the -17.1% consensus from Bloomberg. We would remind readers that durable goods is perhaps the most volatile of all economic readings from a month-to-month perspective.

If you back out the highly volatile transportation segment, durable goods rose by 0.7%. Bloomberg was calling for a gain of 0.8% here. Backing out defense, the orders were -19.0%.

The key reading here is the non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft. This is the key barometer used for a core reading and is considered to be a leading indicator — it rose by 0.6% in August.

These numbers look atrocious if you just read the headlines, but it is a record drop on the heels of a record gain — so the two months should act to negate each other over a longer period. July's headline durable goods was revised to a gain of 22.5% from a preliminary gain of 22.6%.

Equity futures listed lower after the report, but the massive drop is really not so far off of estimates that should make the panic button be hit. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) may be the key blame here, as orders for new planes were 324 in July — and only 107 in August.

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Filed under: Economy Tagged: BA
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