What to Expect in the Unemployment and Payrolls Report
The U.S. Department of Labor is set to report the official Employment Situation for August on Friday morning. The estimates for the month may not have significant changes from the July report, but you can bet that all eyes will be closely watching the payrolls reports.
Bloomberg expects nonfarm payroll employment to firm up in August with an estimate of 230,000 from a relatively soft July reading of 209,000. Dow Jones recently had estimates of 225,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Looking back further, the gains were 298,000 in June and 229,000 in May.
Bloomberg estimates the private sector payroll report to be 220,000. This would be an increase from the July number at 198,000. June was a big month for payrolls all around when it posted 270,000 for private jobs.
The consensus estimates from Bloomberg and from Dow Jones on the official unemployment rate are 6.1%, which would be slightly lower than July's 6.2% but would be identical to June.
The average weekly hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.5 hours. For the month of August, average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.2%. This growth was completely flat in July, after June rose by 0.2%.
In previous months, the goods-producing sector gained 58,000 jobs in July after it grew by 38,000 in June. The manufacturing and construction sectors have been healthy in recent months.
Looking ahead to Thursday, the ADP employment and weekly jobless claims are due as well, and these can influence the estimates for Friday's key jobs report. Bloomberg's estimates for August are 223,000 from ADP, which is up from the July number of 218,000. Weekly jobless claims are estimated at 300,000, which is up from the previous week at 298,000 — this is just in line with the four-week moving average of 299,750. Wednesday's reports from Gallup and TrimTabs were not anything that would upset the apple cart for consensus estimates this week.
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Filed under: Economy