Very Mixed Yet Positive Payrolls Data From ADP and TrimTabs
This week is a very busy week for employment data. We are still awaiting the Friday unemployment and payrolls report from the Labor Department, but we now have two preliminary views that economists try to use as bogeys to tweak expectations for the government's formal payrolls report.
The ADP Private Sector payrolls report increased by 218,000 jobs from June to July in the ADP National Employment Report. Wednesday's report was derived from ADP's actual payroll data, and it measures the change in total nonfarm private employment monthly, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
This 218,000 payroll gains in July from ADP compared to a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 235,000 and to the June ADP payroll gains of a whopping 281,000. Small businesses accounted for 84,000 of the total gains, and medium-sized businesses added 92,000 in the month. Large businesses accounted for 41,000 of the total gains.
TrimTabs Investment Research shows a much rosier picture for July. This report showed that the United States added a whopping 306,000 jobs in July. This was put at the highest growth in four years and TrimTabs showed that this employment growth was more than sufficient to keep pace with population growth.
TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 140 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The TrimTabs summary is that there is no reason to expect the Federal Reserve to deviate from its plan to end its bond purchases by October.
These numbers from ADP and TrimTabs were dwarfed by the monstrous 4.0% gain in second-quarter GDP and by the revised drop to 2.1% in the first quarter from the "prior final" GDP report of -2.9%.
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