Fed Cuts Growth Forecast, Stays Confident About Recovery

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Charles Dharapak/APFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
By Howard Schneider and Jason Lange

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday expressed confidence the U.S. economic recovery was on track and hinted at a slightly more aggressive pace of interest rate increases starting next year.

At the same time, however, officials at the central bank lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate, evidence of slightly diminished expectations for a nation climbing out of a severe crisis and struggling with demographic headwinds like declining labor force participation.

As widely expected, the Fed pushed ahead with plans to wind down one of its main stimulus programs, reducing its monthly asset purchases from $45 billion to $35 billion beginning in July.

At an afternoon news conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided a long list of reasons for short-run confidence -- from resilient household spending to an improving jobs market. Though officials slashed their growth forecast for 2014 from 2.9 percent to a range of between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent, Yellen said that was the result of "transitory" factors like a severe winter and that a rebound was underway.

%VIRTUAL-pullquote-"The economy is continuing to make progress towards our objectives." - Janet Yellen%"Economic activity is rebounding in the current quarter and will continue to expand at a moderate pace," she said. "The economy is continuing to make progress towards our objectives" of full employment and 2 percent inflation.

But Yellen said there had been "a slight decline of projections pertaining to longer term growth" that prompted Fed officials to lower their view of the expected long-term federal funds rate from 4 percent to 3.75 percent.

That is below the 4.25 percent historical level identified by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley.

The Fed's two-day meeting ended with the central bank still comfortable in a situation where inflation is slowly edging up, unemployment is falling and growth is expected at around 3 percent for the next two years -- above the long-term trend.

That prompted the central bank's policy-making ranks, joined by new members including Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, to indicate rates will rise a bit higher over the next two years compared to their last round of quarterly projections in March.

The Fed cut overnight rates to near zero in December 2008 as it battled the financial crisis and deep recession, and the timing and pace of future rate increases is one of the key decisions facing the central bank as the recovery evolves.

Of 16 individual rate hike projections submitted for this meeting, 13 officials said rates should begin rising next year. The median projection for rates at the end of 2015 was 1.125 percent, up slightly from March. Officials projected a slightly more aggressive path of rate hikes for 2016, with the end-year median placed at 2.5 percent versus 2.25 percent in March.

The higher median projections were far from a sign of emerging consensus, however, with forecasts more dispersed than they had been three months ago.

Stocks had a muted reaction to the Fed statement, but rallied following Yellen's comments. The S&P 500 rose to close at an all-time record, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose in price to lower its yield to 2.59 percent.

'Steady As She Goes'

The Fed's policy statement changed little from the one issued after its last meeting in April, repeating that interest rates would remain near zero "for a considerable time" after the bond buying ends. The Fed said unemployment remained "elevated" despite recent job growth, and noted that its preferred measure of inflation was still running below target.

"Steady as she goes, with respect to policy," said Kim Rupert, managing director at Action Economics in San Francisco. "A lot of the doves want to make sure the recovery is for real."

Yellen has warned in the past against interpreting the individual rate projections as a clear indication of how the policy committee is likely to move. She cautioned that the arrival of new members and the departure of former Fed Governor Jeremy Stein made it difficult to compare the anonymous projections with those made in March.

%VIRTUAL-article-sponsoredlinks%Yellen said there was also no agreement yet over how to manage monetary policy as an era of crisis response closes.

In its policy statement, the Fed said it would continue reinvesting the proceeds of its asset holdings as they mature, meaning the central bank's $4.3 trillion balance sheet will for now remain intact. Policymakers are debating how and when to shrink those holdings, and how to manage interest rates given the large amount of cash pumped into the banking system by different crisis programs.

"We have made a lot of progress but we have not yet reached conclusion," Yellen said, adding she expects a more detailed plan to be released later this year.

In cutting their 2014 growth forecast, officials took into account the sour start the economy got this year after severe winter weather crippled activity in major cities around the country. The government said last month that GDP shrank at a 1 percent annual rate, and economists say data since then imply a much deeper contraction.

Although growth now appears to be bouncing back, there remain weak spots, particularly in the housing sector. Fed officials described risks to the economy and labor market as "nearly balanced."

9 Numbers That'll Tell You How the Economy's Really Doing
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Fed Cuts Growth Forecast, Stays Confident About Recovery
The gross domestic product measures the level of economic activity within a country. To figure the number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis combines the total consumption of goods and services by private individuals and businesses; the total investment in capital for producing goods and services; the total amount spent and consumed by federal, state, and local government entities; and total net exports. It's important, because it serves as the primary gauge of whether the economy is growing or not. Most economists define a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP.
The CPI measures current price levels for the goods and services that Americans buy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects price data on a basket of different items, ranging from necessities like food, clothing and housing to more discretionary expenses like eating out and entertainment. The resulting figure is then compared to those of previous months to determine the inflation rate, which is used in a variety of ways, including cost-of-living increases for Social Security and other government benefits.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of workers within the total labor force who don't have a job, but who have looked for work in the past four weeks, and who are available to work. Those temporarily laid off from their jobs are also included as unemployed. Yet as critical as the figure is as a measure of how many people are out of work and therefore suffering financial hardship from a lack of a paycheck, one key item to note about the unemployment rate is that the number does not reflect workers who have stopped looking for work entirely. It's therefore important to look beyond the headline numbers to see whether the overall workforce is growing or shrinking.
The trade deficit measures the difference between the value of a nation's imported and exported goods. When exports exceed imports, a country runs a trade surplus. But in the U.S., imports have exceeded exports consistently for decades. The figure is important as a measure of U.S. competitiveness in the global market, as well as the nation's dependence on foreign countries.
Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis measures changes in the total amount of income that the U.S. population earns, as well as the total amount they spend on goods and services. But there's a reason we've combined them on one slide: In addition to being useful statistics separately for gauging Americans' earning power and spending activity, looking at those numbers in combination gives you a sense of how much people are saving for their future.
Consumers play a vital role in powering the overall economy, and so measures of how confident they are about the economy's prospects are important in predicting its future health. The Conference Board does a survey asking consumers to give their assessment of both current and future economic conditions, with questions about business and employment conditions as well as expected future family income.
The health of the housing market is closely tied to the overall direction of the broader economy. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, named for economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, provides a way to measure home prices, allowing comparisons not just across time but also among different markets in cities and regions of the nation. The number is important not just to home builders and home buyers, but to the millions of people with jobs related to housing and construction.
Most economic data provides a backward-looking view of what has already happened to the economy. But the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index attempts to gauge the future. To do so, the index looks at data on employment, manufacturing, home construction, consumer sentiment, and the stock and bond markets to put together a complete picture of expected economic conditions ahead.
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