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Oscar predictions: What will win and should win






Film 12 Years a Slave

BY JAKE COYLE AND JESSICA HERNDON
AP FILM WRITERS

A seemingly endless movie awards season finally concludes Sunday with the Academy Awards. By now, many of the front-runners have established themselves, but the night's big honor - best picture - remains a dramatic question mark.

Associated Press film writer Jake Coyle and Jessica Herndon both see "12 Years a Slave" eking out the win. But they have plenty to say about not only who will win, but who should win and who should have been a contender.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: "American Hustle," "Captain Phillips," "Dallas Buyers Club," "Gravity," "Her," "Nebraska," "Philomena," "12 Years a Slave," "The Wolf of Wall Street."

COYLE

Will Win: "American Hustle" feels too light - actors in wigs having a ball. And "Gravity," for all its galactic splendor, lacks the force of a solid story. So it must be "12 Years a Slave," the candidate with the heft of history. But make no mistake: There's no certainty in this close contest.

Should Win: "12 Years a Slave." It's an unforgettable odyssey, a reckoning of past movie portrayals of slavery and a uniquely unflinching tale of perseverance.

Should Have Been a Contender: Few movies capture boyhood like Jeff Nichols' soulful Mississippi River coming-of-age tale "Mud."

HERNDON

Will Win: Since "Gravity" stood out as an innovative prodigy advancing visual and 3-D possibilities, it'll clean up in the tech categories and will be crowned the night's big victor.

Should Win: "12 Years a Slave." With its disturbing subject matter and factual significance, it's the year's most epic and vital narrative.

Should Have Been a Contender: "Before Midnight." A deliciously candid look at the dark and deeply romantic evolution of love.

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BEST ACTOR

The Nominees: Christian Bale, "American Hustle"; Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"; Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"; Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club."

HERNDON

Will Win: McConaughey. He ditched vanity and became the favorite. But DiCaprio may just pull through with the win here. The academy loves to crown excess, even if an actor's previous roles dug deeper. (We all remember Denzel's win for "Training Day" - and his snubs for "Malcolm X" and "Philadelphia.")

Should Win: DiCaprio may not have abandoned his good looks for this role, but he was aggressive, hilarious and the hedonism made him repulsive.

Should Have Been a Contender: Joaquin Phoenix, "Her." Carrying most of his scenes solo, since Scarlett Johansson didn't clock any physical screen time, he was the heart and soul of Spike Jonze's gentle romance.

COYLE

Will Win: McConaughey. Hollywood loves a good comeback story.

Should Win: Ejiofor. "12 Years a Slave" finds its strength in his deep eyes and commanding dignity.

Should Have Been a Contender: Many were left out here, most incredibly Tom Hanks for "Captain Phillips." But Mads Mikkelsen's performance as a kindergarten teacher unjustly accused of molesting a friend's child in "The Hunt" was a haunting portrait of a small-town pariah.

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BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Amy Adams, "American Hustle"; Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"; Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"; Judi Dench, "Philomena"; Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County."

COYLE

Will Win: Blanchett's modern-day Blanche DuBois is likely a shoo-in, so long as voters haven't turned against Woody Allen.

Should Win: Blanchett's performance is the most complex here, playing a bitterly unlikable socialite both before and after her life falls apart.

Should Have Been a Contender: The most naked (emotionally, though physically, too) performance of the year was Adele Exarchopoulos in the French drama "Blue Is the Warmest Color." But what about Melissa McCarthy in "The Heat"? Is anyone funnier right now?

HERNDON

Will Win: Blanchett, as an unraveling upper class dame, was so pure and direct that her neurosis seemed instinctive.

Should Win: Blanchett for her layered dethroned lady.

Should Have Been a Contender: Julie Delpy. In "Before Midnight" she was the French everywoman: Nurturing, sensual, feisty and vulnerable. Plus, she had a saucy way with words while arguing topless.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"; Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"; Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"; Jonah Hill, "The Wolf of Wall Street"; Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club."

HERNDON

Will Win: Leto is exceptional and unforgettable as transgender Rayon.

Should Win: Returning to acting after a six-year hiatus, Leto left nothing behind when portraying a prostitute dying of AIDS. He's both bold and defenseless.

Should Have Been a Contender: Will Forte in "Nebraska." He plays a sweet and caring son, but those impromptu comedic chops (thanks, "Saturday Night Live"), which are punctuated by his dry delivery, are as solid as ever.

COYLE

Will Win: Leto is the surest bet of the evening.

Should Win: Fassbender. He deserved nominations for Steve McQueen's first two films ("Hunger," "Shame"), so his larger body of work deserves honoring. Plus, how many rising-star heartthrobs would opt to play such an ugly plantation owner without letting on (like DiCaprio in "Django Unchained") that it's just an act?

Should Have Been a Contender: James Franco, for his jaw-dropping, hysterical extremes in "Spring Breakers." Alternatively, an opportunity was missed to honor the late James Gandolfini, so gentle (and more like himself) in "Enough Said."

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Sally Hawkins, "Blue Jasmine"; Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"; Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"; Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"; June Squibb, "Nebraska."

COYLE

Will Win: Lawrence. This could very well go to the awards season breakout star Nyong'o, but few don't love JLaw, who would accomplish the rare feat of back-to-back years of Oscar wins.

Should Win: Squibb. "Nebraska" needs her bite.

Should Have Been a Contender: Carey Mulligan, for her foul-mouthed fury in "Inside Llewyn Davis."

HERNDON

Will Win: Newcomer Nyong'o's performance of tortured field slave Patsey was heartbreaking and haunting.

Should Win: Nyong'o. She is dauntless. Though both Squibb and Lawrence were irresistibly charismatic.

Should Have Been a Contender: Lea Seydoux for her passionate portrayal of a raw and tender lesbian in "Blue is the Warmest Color." Also, few actresses could play a figure as loathsome, yet unequivocally cardinal as Sarah Paulson in "12 Years a Slave."

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35 Comments
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sammy1947.smith February 27 2014 at 6:12 PM

12 Years a Slave should win by a long shot. A compelling story based on true events. I would love for everyone to see this film and feel the shame in how these poor people were treated. I am so grateful to my parents who taught us all at a very young age that discrimination is against everything we believe in. I am grateful also that I have never had to witness such cruelty of another human being.

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rileysrule February 27 2014 at 2:20 PM

Who's Oscar?

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Jesus the Astronaut February 27 2014 at 12:51 PM

Gravity was terrible and impossible...

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bklyn48cp February 27 2014 at 12:40 PM

Her was one of the worst movies I have ever seen.

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Rick Schoenherr February 27 2014 at 12:02 PM

Oscar's are popularity and political statements, nothing more. Boycotting and have for years

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Mike February 27 2014 at 11:54 AM

Who cares !

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bharrison777 February 27 2014 at 11:25 AM

They have a party every year to pat themselves on the back and make more money. Funny how these super freak left wing nut jobs want everyone but hollywood to pay more taxes. For them it give me more tax breaks so I will make a movie in your state or we will leave. Liberals understant business only when it is their business.

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1 reply to bharrison777's comment
Nancy February 27 2014 at 12:23 PM

Oh My Gawd!! Now the Oscars are in cahoots with the liberals to rob you of your so well deserved tax money? You wing nuts are really searching.......look under the couch maybe there is a mouse waiting for you to go to the store and buy a mouse trap you rob you of a few more tax pennies.

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jkmhcc February 27 2014 at 11:14 AM

I can hardly wait...

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theradiomall February 27 2014 at 11:10 AM

I'm surprised that Gravity was even nominated. Sure, the acting was good and the visuals were stunning, but the basic premise upon which the whole story is predicated is impossible. Everything in orbit goes from west to east, so there could be no "storm" of debris coming at them at orbital speeds from east to west. Then comes a second glaring error: if the impossible were really happening, the debris field wouldn't come every 80-90 minutes (the amount of time for an orbit) but would have come every 40 to 45 minutes.

OOPS!

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bentbouy1 February 27 2014 at 11:08 AM

I could care less

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