Why Oil Could Go Below $80 a Barrel

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Oil could go below $80 if Iran gets solved
Hasan Jamali/AP
By Dhara Ranasinghe
and Matthew J. Belvedere


Oil prices could go well under $80 a barrel if a deal is struck to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer predicted Monday.

"This is the do or die year for Iran," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The price of oil, as he pointed out, is already going down as an extra 500,000 barrels a day of Libyan supply are coming back online after the restart of a key oilfield there.

Last week, oil prices dropped 6.3 percent -- its worst week since June 2012. Crude is slightly higher in early Monday trading.

"Even without an Iranian deal, the Saudis are going to have to reduce production just to maintain a price floor above $80 [a barrel] by the end of first quarter," Bremmer said.

"If an Iran deal happens, we're going well under that. The Saudis won't be able to keep that going," he added.

Alternatively, he pointed to a grim scenario if an Iran deal isn't achieved: "Iran moving very quickly towards becoming a de facto nuclear breakout state, the Saudis going nuclear, too."

Bremmer's comments follow Eurasia's report on their top risks facing the world in 2014 -- risks that are likely to stem from politics rather than the economic environment, which has stabilized since the 2008 financial crisis.

In a report released Monday, the political risk consultancy ranked America's troubled alliances, diverging markets, China, Iran and petrostates as the top five in a list of 10 risks facing the world.

"In 2014, big-picture economics are stable if not yet comforting," Eurasia said in the report. "But geopolitics is very much in play. %VIRTUAL-article-sponsoredlinks%The realities of a G-Zero order, a world of geopolitical creative destruction without global leadership, are evident."

Political risk has resurfaced recently, from tension between Asia's two big economies -- China and Japan -- over disputed islands in the East China Sea, to unrest in Ukraine, Turkey, Egypt, Thailand and Cambodia.

"There are tensions between China and Japan in the East China Sea, elite-level executions in North Korea, Russia flexing its muscles in neighboring Ukraine and beyond, and everyone fighting with everyone else in the Middle East," Eurasia said. "All of which is changing the geopolitical map quite aside from the role of the world's only superpower."

Geopolitical risk in Asia has increasingly been talked about by analysts as something to watch closely this year.

"The biggest risk arguably is in north Asia, with the conflicts between Japan and China that needs to be resolved," Colin Chapman, president, New South Wales at the Australian Institute of International Affairs, told CNBC on Monday.

Eurasia said that other risks this year include cybersecurity, a resurgence of al-Qaeda-style terrorism, growing unrest in the Middle East, and Russia, where the popularity of President Vladimir Putin is slipping, and instability in Turkey.

U.S.: A Troubled Power Abroad?

While the U.S. now enjoys one of the "most exciting" economic growth stories in the world, there has been a "notable decline" in the country's foreign policy, Eurasia said.

It put this down to a distracted Europe led by Germany instead of a more geopolitically aligned France and Germany, while Russia and China appear more willing to challenge U.S. preferences overseas and U.S. voters offer less support for an ambitious foreign policy.

"Add in a handful of significant missteps -- regarding Syria, the response to the NSA/Snowden affair, and the need for domestic focus on congressional infighting and the Obamacare rollout fiasco -- and you have the makings of a perfect U.S. foreign policy storm," Eurasia said.

It added that the implications were a more challenging outlook for U.S. corporates and less effective multilateralism that could weaken trade partnerships such as the Trans Pacific Partnership. Confusion about U.S. commitments meanwhile could "complicate" choices for those states balancing political and economic interests between the U.S. and China, especially in Asia.

Election Year

Political risk is high on the agenda with a number of key emerging markets facing an election year. These include Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Turkey, India and Indonesia.

"Not one of those countries enters its electoral cycle with strong, popular leadership. Then add empowered middle classes that demand greater accountability from their governments. The stakes are rising, and some of the world's key economies are in for a rough ride," Eurasia said.

It expects major emerging markets to diverge significantly after elections, with a positive outlook on Columbia and was skeptical on India.

Eurasia said that reform efforts by China's new leadership mean there is now "much more uncertainty" within the world's second largest economy.

Beijing unveiled a host of sweeping long-term reforms in November such as easing the controversial one-child policy, relaxing the system of household registration and granting greater rights to farmers.

"Reforms might prove to be very successful, improving China's investment climate and opportunities for integration into the world economy," Eurasia said. "Still, the government is loosening its hold on key reins of the domestic economy on an historic scale, and that could have serious unforeseen consequences."


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Why Oil Could Go Below $80 a Barrel

Plenty of Americans live beyond their means but don percentt even realize it. A 2012 Country Financial survey found that more than one-half of respondents (52 percent) said their monthly spending exceeded their income at least a few months a year. Yet only 9 percent of respondents said their lifestyle was more than they could afford. Of the 52 percent who routinely overspend, 36 percent finance the shortfall by dipping into savings; 22 percent use credit cards.

Blowing your entire paycheck (and then some) each month isn percent an ingredient in the recipe for financial success. Neither is draining your savings or running up card balances. To rein in spending, start by tracking where the money goes every month. Try to zero in on nonessential areas where you can cut back. Then create a realistic budget that ensures you have enough to pay the bills as well as enough for contributions to such things as a retirement account and a rainy-day fund. Our household budget worksheet or an online budgeting site can help.

If you're like most folks, your savings habits could use some improvement. The personal savings rate in the U.S. is just 4.9 percent of disposable income, down from a high of 14.6 percent in 1975. Only about one-half of Americans (54 percent) say they have a savings plan in place to meet specific goals, according to a 2013 survey commissioned by America Saves, a group that advocates for better saving habits.

Saving needs to be a priority in order to build wealth. Begin with an emergency fund that can be tapped in the event of an illness, job loss or other unexpected calamity. A 2012 survey by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority found that 56 percent of individuals say they have not set aside even three months' worth of income to handle financial emergencies. Once your emergency fund is well under way, you can divert small amounts toward other goals, such as buying a home or paying for college. These six strategies can help you save more, no matter your income.

Americans have $846.9 billion in credit card debt alone. That's $7,050 per household, according to NerdWallet.com, a Web site that analyzes financial products and data. If you're only making minimum monthly payments on $7,050, it'll take 28 years and cost you $10,663 in interest before you're debt-free, assuming a 15 percent interest rate. And that only holds true if you don't make any additional charges.

Some debts can lead to financial success -- a mortgage to purchase real estate, a credit line to start a business or a student loan to fund a college education -- but a high-interest credit card balance usually doesn't. Pay down credit cards with the steepest rates as quickly as possible. Putting $250 a month toward that same $7,050 debt will retire it in three years and save you about $9,000 in interest versus making minimum payments. See Escape the Debt Trap for more strategies to chip away at what you owe.

Late fees, banking fees, credit-card fees -- the amounts might seem insignificant when taken individually. After all, an overdue library book or Redbox DVD might only run you a dollar. But if you're regularly paying penalties and fees, these charges can quickly eat a hole in your budget. Consider this: The average bank overdraft fee is $32.20, according to Bankrate.com, and the average charge for going outside your ATM network is $4.13. Late-payment penalties for credit cards can climb as high as $35.

So how do you avoid pesky fees? Read the fine print so you understand fee rules, and stay organized so you avoid breaching those rules. Here are 33 common fees you can avoid -- or at least reduce -- with just a bit of effort. With the extra cash, you can pay down debt or boost your savings.

Would you ignore a hundred-dollar bill on the sidewalk? Of course not. You'd bend over and pick it up. So why are you passing up other opportunities to get free money? If your employer matches employee contributions to a 401(k) but you're not participating in the retirement plan, then you're passing up free money. If you let rewards points from loyalty programs or credit cards expire, then you're passing up free money. If you claim the standard deduction on your tax return when you qualify for itemized deductions that could lower your tax bill even more, then you're passing up free money.

Believe it or not, there might even be free money out there that you forgot about -- or never knew of in the first place. There are more than $41 billion worth of unclaimed assets ranging from old tax refunds and paychecks to forgotten stocks and certificates of deposit being held by state agencies, according to the National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators. Do a search on MissingMoney.com to find out if there are unclaimed assets that belong to you.

It's easy to focus on the present -- the bills you have to pay, the things you want to buy -- and assume you'll have time in the future to start saving for retirement. But the longer you wait, the tougher it will be to amass a sufficiently large nest egg. For example, if you wait until you are 35 to start saving for retirement, you'll have to set aside $671 a month to reach $1 million by age 65 (assuming an 8 percent annual return). But if you start at age 25, you'll need to save just $286 a month to hit $1 million by the time you're 65.

Even if you're creeping closer to retirement, it's not too late to start putting away money. In fact, Uncle Sam makes it easier for procrastinators to catch up on retirement savings. If you're 50 or over, you can contribute up to $23,000 annually to a 401(k) (versus $17,500 for those younger than 50). The contribution limit for older savers to traditional and Roth IRAs is $6,500 a year (versus $5,500 for everyone else). Use our Retirement Savings Calculator to figure out how much you need to save.

Does this sound like your investing strategy? You hear about a stock that is soaring, and you want to get in on the action, so you impulsively buy. But soon after, the stock starts tanking. You can't bear the pain of watching your shares decline further in value, so you immediately sell at a loss. As a result, you're wasting money rather than building wealth.

Unfortunately, many investors buy high and sell low because they follow the herd blindly into the latest hot stock. You can resist the urge to go with the crowd if you adhere to smart investing techniques. One such technique is dollar-cost averaging, a simple system of investing at regular intervals no matter what the market is doing. While it doesn't guarantee success, it does eliminate the likelihood that you're always buying at the top -- plus, it takes the guesswork and emotion out of investing. See the 7 Deadly Sins of Investing to learn how to overcome common missteps.

New stuff is nice, but it's often not the best investment. Take cars. Estimates vary, but some experts say a new vehicle loses 30 percent of its value within the first two years -- including an immediate drop as soon as you drive off the dealer's lot. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average vehicle is worth 44 percent less after five years.

If you're not comfortable buying something that someone else has owned, get over your hang-up because you're missing a big money-saving opportunity. Many pre-owned items can cost up to 50 percent to 75 percent less than the price you'd pay if you purchased them new. From designer jeans to college textbooks, here are 11 things that you should consider buying used because you often can find them in good or almost-new condition at a fraction of the price.

An early retirement is a dream for many, but calling it quits if you're too young has several potential drawbacks. For starters, you could incur a 10 percent early-withdrawal penalty if you tap certain retirement accounts, including 401(k)s and IRAs, before age 59½. (There are exceptions.) You can claim Social Security as early as age 62, but your benefit will be reduced by as much as 30 percent from what it would be if you wait until your full retirement age, which falls between 66 and 67 depending on your year of birth.

Health care is another big issue. You must be 65 to qualify for Medicare. In the meantime, without access to an employer-sponsored plan, you might have to pay a lot more out of pocket for individual coverage until you're eligible for Medicare.

And speaking of health, the longer you live in retirement, the more likely you are to outlive your nest egg. Let's say you make it to the age of 90. A $1 million portfolio evenly split between stocks, bonds and cash has a 92 percent likelihood of lasting until you turn 90 if you retire at 65, according to Vanguard. But retire at age 55 and the likelihood drops to 66 percent. Use our Retirement Savings Calculator to determine when you can really afford to retire.

This might be the single biggest obstacle on your path to riches. If you're not investing in continuing education, training and personal development, you're limiting your ability to make more money in the future. "Your own earning power -- rooted in your education and job skills -- is the most valuable asset you'll ever own, and it can't be wiped out in a market crash," writes Kiplinger's Personal Finance Editor in Chief Knight Kiplinger in 8 Keys to Financial Security.

Consider taking nondegree courses online to boost your knowledge of your field or enrolling in a graduate program (see 5 Advanced Degrees Still Worth the Debt). If you don't have a college degree, see our picks for best college values or check out these four alternatives to a four-year college degree. Just keep in mind that some college majors (think finance, computer science or nursing) lead to more lucrative careers than others (sorry, arts and humanities lovers).

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