3 Predictions for the New Week

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I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Marvell Technology Group would move higher on the week. Coming off of fresh highs going into the week, the chipmaker was reporting earnings and had surpassed expectations -- by far -- in each of the past three quarters. It was another well-received quarter, and the stock moved 5% higher to even fresher and higher highs. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, this was a slightly upbeat week for stocks. The Nasdaq moved 0.1% higher, losing out to the Dow and its 0.6% gain. I was wrong.
  • My final call was for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The company behind the Keurig brewers that's championing the popularity of single-serve coffee had consistently beaten bottom-line expectations over the past year, and I was banking on a repeat performance. It didn't disappoint, serving up an adjusted profit of $0.89 a share, blowing past the $0.75 the pros were forecasting. I was right.

Three out of three? I can get used to this!

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Tesla Motors will move higher on the week
Tesla Motors  has gone from being one of the hottest stocks of the year to being one of this quarter's worth performers. Since peaking above $190 in late September, the electric-car maker's stock has fallen in seven of the past eight quarters, including in each of the past five weeks.

I was a contrarian on Tesla on the way up. I spent the summer -- as the stock soared -- predicting that the stock would fall. I was correct all three times.There was too much euphoria priced into the shares. This time I'm flipping the script. I'm going to predict that Tesla bounces back in this short trading week. Momentum isn't on my side, but it wasn't on my side when I was going the other way this summer.  

My first call is for Tesla's stock to move higher this week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.

I'm going to stick with this pick during this holiday-shortened trading week, even if it was the wrong bet this past week. This is the time for Nasdaq's growth stocks to shine. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3. Renren will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

Renren  is the company behind a popular Chinese social networking website. It offers a platform for folks willing to use their real names -- something that it was doing before the world's most populous nation demanded it of its social sites -- the ability to express their thoughts and experiences.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a loss of $0.10 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.


EPS Estimate



Q3 2012




Q4 2012




Q1 2013




Q2 2013




Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. Chinese Internet stocks have been posting mixed results this season, and Renren was already seeing its display advertising business languish in recent quarters. Renren has been able to make up for that fall with gaming revenue and other means of monetization, but you never know when those wells will run dry.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week. Meanwhile, if you're looking for some long-term investing ideas, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new special report, "The 3 Dow Stocks Dividend Investors Need." It's absolutely free, so simply click here now and get your copy today.

The article 3 Predictions for the New Week originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. The Motley Fool recommends Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Tesla Motors and owns shares of Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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