Mortgage Rates Tick Up, Despite Fed Assurances on Stimulus

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This is a home sold in Mt. Lebanon, Pa., Tuesday, July 23, 2013.  (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Gene J. Puskar/AP

WASHINGTON -- Average rates on U.S. fixed mortgages ticked up this week but are still low by historical standards, a trend that has helped the housing market recover.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average on the 30-year loan rose to 4.39 percent from 4.31 percent last week. Rates are a full percentage point higher than in early May.

The average on the 15-year fixed loan increased to 3.43 percent from 3.39 percent last week.

Rates spiked in June after the Federal Reserve indicated it could slow its bond purchases later this year, which have kept long-term interest rates low.

But on Wednesday the Fed hinted it might hold off because the economy remains sluggish. And it noted for the first time that mortgage rates, which have fueled home sales, "have risen somewhat" from record lows.

Mortgage rates tend to follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has also jumped on speculation that the Fed could slow its stimulus.

Despite the increases, mortgages are still a bargain for those who can qualify. And low rates are helping boost home sales in most markets and driving home prices up.

Home prices jumped 12.2 percent in May compared with a year earlier, according to the latest Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday. That's the biggest annual gain since March 2006.

To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.
  • The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was 0.7 point this week, down from 0.8 point last week. The fee for a 15-year loan also declined to 0.7 point from 0.8 point.
  • The average rate on a one-year adjustable-rate mortgage fell to 2.64 percent from 2.65 percent. The fee was unchanged at 0.4 point.
  • The average rate on a five-year adjustable mortgage rose to 3.18 percent from 3.16 percent. The fee declined to 0.6 point from 0.7.
9 Numbers That'll Tell You How the Economy's Really Doing
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Mortgage Rates Tick Up, Despite Fed Assurances on Stimulus
The gross domestic product measures the level of economic activity within a country. To figure the number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis combines the total consumption of goods and services by private individuals and businesses; the total investment in capital for producing goods and services; the total amount spent and consumed by federal, state, and local government entities; and total net exports. It's important, because it serves as the primary gauge of whether the economy is growing or not. Most economists define a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP.
The CPI measures current price levels for the goods and services that Americans buy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects price data on a basket of different items, ranging from necessities like food, clothing and housing to more discretionary expenses like eating out and entertainment. The resulting figure is then compared to those of previous months to determine the inflation rate, which is used in a variety of ways, including cost-of-living increases for Social Security and other government benefits.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of workers within the total labor force who don't have a job, but who have looked for work in the past four weeks, and who are available to work. Those temporarily laid off from their jobs are also included as unemployed. Yet as critical as the figure is as a measure of how many people are out of work and therefore suffering financial hardship from a lack of a paycheck, one key item to note about the unemployment rate is that the number does not reflect workers who have stopped looking for work entirely. It's therefore important to look beyond the headline numbers to see whether the overall workforce is growing or shrinking.
The trade deficit measures the difference between the value of a nation's imported and exported goods. When exports exceed imports, a country runs a trade surplus. But in the U.S., imports have exceeded exports consistently for decades. The figure is important as a measure of U.S. competitiveness in the global market, as well as the nation's dependence on foreign countries.
Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis measures changes in the total amount of income that the U.S. population earns, as well as the total amount they spend on goods and services. But there's a reason we've combined them on one slide: In addition to being useful statistics separately for gauging Americans' earning power and spending activity, looking at those numbers in combination gives you a sense of how much people are saving for their future.
Consumers play a vital role in powering the overall economy, and so measures of how confident they are about the economy's prospects are important in predicting its future health. The Conference Board does a survey asking consumers to give their assessment of both current and future economic conditions, with questions about business and employment conditions as well as expected future family income.
The health of the housing market is closely tied to the overall direction of the broader economy. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, named for economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, provides a way to measure home prices, allowing comparisons not just across time but also among different markets in cities and regions of the nation. The number is important not just to home builders and home buyers, but to the millions of people with jobs related to housing and construction.
Most economic data provides a backward-looking view of what has already happened to the economy. But the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index attempts to gauge the future. To do so, the index looks at data on employment, manufacturing, home construction, consumer sentiment, and the stock and bond markets to put together a complete picture of expected economic conditions ahead.
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