ICF International Announces New Gas Price Risk Report

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ICF International Announces New Gas Price Risk Report

Report Provides Gas Price Distributions Based on 80 Years of Weather Data

FAIRFAX, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ICF International (NAS: ICFI) , a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has announced its second-quarter 2013 Gas Price Risk Report. The report is a new product offering from ICF International.

The Gas Price Risk Report provides price and basis information and includes findings for the 2013 injection season, winter 2013-2014, and for all of 2014. Distributions are generated from ICF's Gas Market Model (GMM©) by substituting 80 years of historical weather data for the "normal" weather assumed in ICF's base price projection.

Weather is a critical driver for near-term gas prices. The Gas Price Risk Report is based on results from the Gas Market Model, ICF's proprietary model of the North American gas market. To produce the report, ICF's model is run multiple times with actual weather data dating back to the 1930s, solving for gas prices under current market conditions with the changing weather conditions. The model output is then used to define price and regional basis distributions.

"ICF's Gas Price Risk Report will help natural gas producers, midstream service providers, marketers, and gas consumers - including gas utilities and power providers - address gas price volatility due to the unpredictability of weather," said Kevin Petak, vice president for ICF International. "The price basis distributions in the report can be used to advise professionals engaged in financial and resource planning."

Among ICF's second quarter 2013 Gas Price Risk Report findings:

  • For winter 2013-2014, the distribution of prices at Henry Hub is skewed well above ICF's normal weather projection, indicating an increased risk for higher prices.
  • For the remainder of 2014, Henry Hub prices are expected to moderate off of the coming winter's levels, as gas production rebounds and demand growth moderates.
  • Basis between Henry Hub and Transco Zone 6 New York will ease this coming winter because of pipeline expansions due on-line later this year.

Some of the key questions addressed within the Gas Price Risk Report include:

  • What price level could be expected from a repeat of last year's weather?
  • How would a cold winter affect basis to key markets, like New England?
  • What are the expected mean, median, and standard deviation for gas prices at various locations, considering the different weather conditions?
  • What are the distributions for gas price and basis, given different ranges of weather conditions (e.g., the past 30, 20, or 10 years)?
  • Are the distributions for prices and basis normal or skewed, relative to average weather conditions?

Detailed information in the Gas Price Risk Report includes:

  • Distributions for gas prices at 25 major pricing points throughout North America, based on over 80 weather scenarios.
  • Regional basis distributions.
  • Statistical measures, including the mean, median, standard deviation, variance, and skew measures for each price and basis distribution.
  • Heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) applied to generate price distributions.
  • A database, including price results, HDDs, and CDDs from the multiple runs of ICF's GMM©, making it possible for a user to drill down through the data and create their own charts and price-weather relationships.

About ICF International

ICF International (NAS: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, social programs, and consumer/financial; and public safety and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program lifecycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 4,500 employees serve these clients from more than 60 offices worldwide. ICF's website is http://www.icfi.com.

Caution Concerning Forward-looking Statements

Statements that are not historical facts and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties are "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may concern our current expectations about our future results, plans, operations and prospects and involve certain risks, including those related to the government contracting industry generally; our particular business, including our dependence on contracts with U.S. federal government agencies; and our ability to acquire and successfully integrate businesses. These and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ from those indicated in forward-looking statements are included in the "Risk Factors" section of our securities filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements included herein are only made as of the date hereof, and we specifically disclaim any obligation to update these statements in the future.

ICF International
Steve Anderson, +1-703-934-3847

KEYWORDS:   United States  North America  Virginia


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