Fitch Sees Less Robust Housing Growth in 2013

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Fitch Ratings has a call on an improving outlook of the U.S. housing market. The report, titled "U.S. Homebuilding/Construction: The Chalk Line Fall 2012," talks about the gains being sustained with positive reports on single-family starts, new homes and existing home sales. The report shows that 2012 has so far been well above 2011 levels, but still assume a moderate rise off a very low bottom. Here are some 2012 projections:

Single-family housing starts to improve about 19%. New home sales to rise approximately 19.5%. Existing home sales are expected to rise by about 8.5%.

Unfortunately, Fitch is in the camp that housing growth should be "somewhat less robust" in 2013. It expects gains of 14% in single family starts and 13% gains in new home sales in 2013. Fitch also expects that the existing home sales should increase by 4.5%.

In addition to the report on housing, Fitch said in another research report this morning that the public homebuilders have been outpacing their private sector building peers in the recovery. It stated:

Housing metrics have been steadily growing on a year-over-year basis so far this year, according to Fitch Ratings. This pattern should continue during the balance of 2012 and 2013. Also, by certain measures the major public builders are outperforming their private peers.

JON C. OGG

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