7 Reasons Best Buy Won't Be Around in 7 Years

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Best BuyThe hunt is on for Best Buy's (BBY) next CEO.

It won't be an easy job to fill. Just because Best Buy outlasted Circuit City and several smaller consumer electronics retailers doesn't mean that it won.

Best Buy has an ambitious plan of closing down some stores, updating others, and ramping up its chain of smaller Best Buy Mobile locations.

Thankfully, Best Buy is still profitable. Its balance sheet is also in decent shape. The last major consumer electronics superstore concept still left standing will definitely be around for the next few holiday shopping seasons.

However, the reason that it will be hard for the company to secure a top helmsman is that the concept -- if not the industry itself -- will become less relevant with every passing year. I recently went over a few ways for Best Buy to save itself, but the prognosis isn't very positive. Let's go over some of the things working against Best Buy's long-term viability.

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7 Reasons Best Buy Won't Be Around in 7 Years
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7 Reasons Best Buy Won't Be Around in 7 Years

Showrooming -- the troublesome practice for local store owners that finds potential buyers kicking the tires of products before buying them cheaper online -- isn't going away.

Amazon.com (AMZN) reported a 34% spike in net sales during its first quarter on Thursday. Best Buy doesn't operate on the same fiscal calendar as the leading online retailer, but analysts feel that the company's top line will inch less than 3% higher when it reports next month.

It's not Best Buy's fault. A company with the overhead of manning physical stores can't afford to sell at the prices that nimbler Web-based retailers can offer. The wide availability of the Internet as a research tool also makes the hands-on perspective that local retailers provide less necessary, and in some cases even less desirable.

Some real-world chains are fighting back through exclusivity. Cheap-chic discount department store operator Target (TGT) has been a strong player in stocking up on items that are only available through Target.

Best Buy doesn't have that luxury.

Best Buy confirmed on Thursday that it's killing Best Buy Connect, the retailer's private-label mobile broadband service. It never took off, and the service reportedly had just 11,000 customers. Yes, the company has private labels for home theater and other consumer electronics, but it's not as if the merchandise is considered unique. This isn't Sears (SHLD) with brand equity for its Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances.

Walk into a Best Buy and check out the racks of CDs, video games, books, and movies. All four of those media platforms are losing physical appeal as those industries go digital.

In Thursday night's quarterly report, Amazon revealed that nine of the 10 best-sellers were digital products. Best Buy may think it's scoring a sale when it sells a tablet or a smartphone, but it's really simply handing over the tools that will result in that shopper relying less on in-store purchases.

Another nugget in Amazon's report is that 130,000 of the books in its virtual marketplace are exclusive to the Kindle Store. Yes, a lot of that is vanity press stuff from authors who couldn't land real publishing deals, but 16 of Amazon's 100 best-selling e-books were exclusive to its store.

Apple (AAPL), on the other hand, is the poster child of the modern ecosystem. The success of iTunes has turned Apple into the country's largest music retailer. There are now hundreds of thousands of apps in the company's iconic App Store.

Best Buy has tried its hand at digital distribution of music and movies -- even to the point of buying Napster and CinemaNow -- but that hasn't panned out. Brick-and-mortar chains just don't have the high-tech appeal to launch cool digital ecosystems.

The worst part about movies, music, books, and games going digital isn't just the empty space that Best Buy will have to fill. The company has enough sharp retail vets to put the space to work with store remodeling plans that are currently in the works.

The worst part of the migration is that these are the items that forced shoppers to come back to Best Buy. You may only need a new washer once every 10 years, but there are always new DVDs hitting the market every Tuesday. New video games, CDs, and books are also always coming out. As more people replace physical media with digital -- and you do realize that Apple and Amazon are selling millions of tablets every passing quarter -- Best Buy will be a less frequent stop for even its most loyal customers.

Best Buy conceded in its most recent report that it will have to get serious about lowering prices in the future. Its aggressive expense-shaving efforts will be partly passed on to shoppers in the form of better pricing.

"We intend to invest some of these cost savings into offering new and improved customer experiences and competitive prices," Best Buy explained last month.

The problem is that it will probably never be able to cut its overhead to the point where it's truly competitive with Amazon and even cheaper e-tailers. This will force Best Buy into sacrificing margins on products, but hoping to make a profit by selling extended warranties, obsolescence insurance, and Geek Squad services. It's a plan that sounds fine on paper, but consumers are already tiring of the hard sell during the checkout process for services that they may never need. If Best Buy sees this as its future, it's underestimating what shoppers do when they're annoyed.

They stop coming back!

hhgregg (HGG) and Conn's (CONN) are some of the rare survivors in this field, and it's because they key in on heavy appliances, furniture, bedding, and even lawn care equipment that's harder to secure cheaper online, given the bulk of the items.

Best Buy naturally sells appliances, but that's just 5% of its business. If Best Buy wants to emphasize big-ticket items that are purchased very infrequently -- thereby taking on the smaller hhgregg and Conn's -- it would probably have to close all but a store or two in each of its major markets. There just isn't enough business for these products to justify Best Buy's existing store base and square footage.

In short, it's not going to happen.

Best Buy may be in the process of closing nearly 50 stores over the next few weeks, but there will be more of that in the future unless trends reverse and positive catalysts emerge.

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Longtime Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz does not own shares in any of the stocks in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com, Best Buy, and Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Apple, Amazon.com, and hhgregg, as well as creating a bull call spread position in Apple.


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