What Is the Tim Tebow of Stocks?

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There may not be a person in sports more polarizing than Tim Tebow. Fans love him, the "experts" can't stand him, but in the face of it all he keeps winning. There must be companies that are similarly hated, loved, and who keep on winning, right?

When comparing Tebow to stocks, I tried to look for similar performance: companies that keep winning, keep outperforming "experts'" estimates, and have rabid fan bases. Here are my top three Tebow stocks.

Sirius XM (NAS: SIRI)
If you want to spark rage from fans of Sirius XM, all you need to do is write something negative. I found that out the hard way a little over a year ago when I questioned Sirius' staying power. And Sirius XM has outperformed Wall Street's estimates three of the last four quarters as well.

But even with the earnings beats and rabid fan base, investors aren't convinced about Sirius XM. At the end of October, 277 million shares of Sirius had been sold short, the most of any stock on the Nasdaq.

Can Sirius keep winning? Time will tell.

SodaStream (NAS: SODA)
Until management gave weak guidance after the second quarter, SodaStream's stock was on a roll and everyone was a fan. But the market and its experts fell out of love quickly, including Jim Cramer, after guidance didn't meet expectations.

But the numbers don't lie, and SodaStream came through in the third quarter with another earnings blowout. Doubt all you want, but the last four quarters have looked like Tebow time not just passing expectations but leaving them in the dust.

 

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Analyst EPS Estimates0.10 euro0.15 euro0.22 euro0.25 euro
Actual EPS0.25 euro0.27 euro0.29 euro0.42 euro

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

When it comes down to crunch time, SodaStream has all the right moves.

Netflix (NAS: NFLX)
This might be the stock that most closely mimics Tebow's results so far. Netflix has performed extremely well, passing expectations quarter after quarter, but everyone is worried about future failures.

Even the most recent quarter, when everyone began panicking about subscribers fleeing, was a 23.4% earnings beat with earnings per share of $1.16 versus the $0.94 analysts expected.

The Tebow magic at Netflix may have worn off for the time being, but there is reason to believe that international growth and a realization that Qwikster was a terrible idea may be the fourth-quarter adjustment Netflix needs to pull out another unexpectedly good quarter.

Honorable mention
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NAS: GMCR) also gets honorable mention for outstanding growth in the face of expert naysayers. But an earnings miss in the most recent quarter has me wondering if Green Mountain really has Tebow's killer instinct.

Those are my picks, now it's time for you to weigh in. What stock do you think is the Tim Tebow of the stock market? Leave your pick in our comments section below.

At the time this article was published Fool contributor Travis Hoium does not have a position in any company mentioned. You can follow Travis on Twitter at @FlushDrawFool, check out his personal stock holdings or follow his CAPS picks at TMFFlushDraw.Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Netflix, and SodaStream International, as well as creating a lurking gator position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2011 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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