Dow 10,000 just around the corner
The DJIA nearly hit 9,800 on September 16 and closed the day at just above 9,791. Three more days of the index rising more than 1 percent and the Dow will be back at 10,000. It has not been above that level since last October.
The Dow's shot at passing 10,000 appears to be relatively good. Most of the economic data coming out of Washington and private research firms that cover major sectors has been good and often better than expected. GDP in the U.S. is recovering as well as many economists expected and, in some parts of the E.U. and China, GDP improvement has exceeded forecasts. These are all U.S. trading partners so there should be some expectation that American export figures will improve.There are early indications that the government's $787 billion stimulus package is kicking in. The rate at which unemployment is rising has slowed and there is even some expectation that the jobless rate will level out by early 2010. Factory production has started to tick up. Home sales are recovering, very modestly, in some regions.
And, some of the most significant components in the DJIA are doing remarkably well. Shares in GE (GE) have moved up 15 percent in three days on hopes that the broad global economy is improving. Shares in JPMorgan (JPM) continue to advance as the banking industry recovers. Shares in tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) have risen over 7 percent in a month as the market anticipates the launch of Windows 7 and an improvement in global PC sales.
The Dow will be back to 10,000 and it will probably happen before the end of the month.